The rising cost of jet fuel is putting pressure on airline profits as winter approaches. For Transavia France, a low-cost airline and subsidiary of Air France-KLM, the usual slowdown in activity after the summer season makes it harder to manage these increased expenses. While Air France-KLM has some protection through fuel hedging contracts—agreements that lock in prices for a portion of their fuel needs—it still faces higher costs. According to Reuters, jet fuel prices in Northwest Europe reached $1,476 per tonne on September 3, the highest since May. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that the global average price of jet fuel hit $194.90 per barrel in the week ending September 18, 2026, a 7.4% increase from the previous week. However, these market prices do not always reflect what airlines pay, especially if they have hedged part of their fuel needs. Olivier Mazzucchelli, CEO of Transavia France, told AFP that it is "almost impossible" to remain profitable with such high fuel costs. While the airline saw strong revenue in July and August, its oil-related expenses have exceeded budget forecasts. The most challenging period is yet to come, Mazzucchelli said, as activity is expected to slow until Christmas, except for the autumn holidays. He explained that the airline cannot easily raise ticket prices to offset the rising fuel costs, as passengers may be reluctant to pay more. To reduce fuel use, Transavia France is replacing its older Boeing 737-800 aircraft with newer Airbus A320neo models, which are more fuel-efficient. The airline currently operates 31 Airbus aircraft in a fleet of 96 single-aisle planes, with five additional A321neo planes expected to arrive in March 2027. Mazzucchelli said these newer models offer better cost efficiency per seat on routes that can fill their capacity. He also noted that optimizing flight schedules has led to annual fuel savings of 2 to 3%. Air France-KLM reported in July that it had hedged 67% of its expected fuel needs for 2026 and 40% for 2027. These contracts help reduce the impact of price fluctuations on those volumes, but they do not eliminate the higher costs of the fuel it has not hedged. The group estimated a fuel bill of $8.9 billion in 2026, $2 billion more than in 2025. In the second quarter of 2026, rising fuel prices hurt its results by 804 million euros compared to the previous year. However, the group claims it offset about 85% of this impact through increased revenue, partly due to higher air ticket prices. For Transavia France and its Dutch subsidiary, the fuel bill for the second quarter rose by 50.1% year-on-year to 306 million euros. Despite a 91.2% load factor and increased passenger traffic, the airline recorded an adjusted operating loss of 35 million euros. In response, Air France-KLM has lowered its capacity growth forecast for 2026 to 2 to 3%, down from 2 to 4% previously. For Transavia France and the Netherlands, the forecast has been reduced to around 8%, down from 8 to 10%. The airline group is adjusting its network and pricing strategies in response to a volatile market, but it has not announced any further reductions in capacity for the winter season. The winter travel season will be a crucial test for airlines, as they must manage filling planes outside of holiday periods, adjust prices, and keep fuel consumption low. The actual fuel costs will also depend on oil market trends, influenced by the security situation in the Middle East and existing hedging contracts. Airlines are navigating a challenging environment as they try to balance rising costs with customer demand and profitability.