A salon is a meeting, a place of appearance. It is therefore rare for expressions there to be discomfited. The IFTM has not deviated from the rule. However, those who lingered at the stands of the airline companies could perceive a certain tension. It is an understatement. There is the facade speech and nervous responses. Seven years later, nothing suggests that we will experience a black September again. But this does not mean that the situation is glorious, quite the opposite. Air Baltic, in difficulty for many months, has placed itself under the protection of Chapter 11 of bankrupt companies. Wizz Air tries to calm the situation after Michael O'Leary's statements regarding its financial situation, while AirAsia and Volotea give signs of concern. The return is not the one expected. Especially since September, like in distribution, is traditionally the most difficult period to pass for carriers. The departures have occurred, the cash registers are therefore empty, the reservations are slowly resuming, and, in addition, it is during this same period that France experienced the double economic crash of XL Airways and Aigle Azur. The autumn is not even here yet that the carriers are already sounding the alarm, in France. Jet fuel is rising much more than oil. Why? And having spoken with many industry leaders, the concern was more than palpable. Since the war in Iran, the aviation fuel is experiencing an inflationary wave rarely seen in its history. Its increase is in fact much greater than that experienced by French motorists. "In June, we all thought the crisis was behind us, but it has actually gotten worse. We almost feel that Trump is letting it slide. Journalists talk exclusively about the barrel, but the most serious issue today is the cost of refining. It has gone from 20 dollars to 90 dollars per barrel in one year. That is a very bad news," laments Paul-Henri Dubreuil, president of the same-named group. The barrel intended for airplanes was trading at 181.66 dollars (+101.6% compared to 2025) last week, compared to 102.95 dollars (+68.49%) for crude oil. The difference corresponds to what the IATA calls the "jet fuel crack spread", that is, the refining margin of jet fuel. And this continues to increase since the health crisis. Why such a shift then? "To understand the current surge, one must keep in mind that the price of jet fuel does not depend only on that of crude oil, but also on the available refining capacities. However, a significant part of the capacities that supply Europe today is located in the Middle East. They are therefore particularly exposed to the disruptions that the region has been experiencing since the beginning of the year," we are told by Paul Chiambaretto, professor of strategy and marketing at MBS School of Business and director of the Pégase Chair. According to the website Transitions & Énergies, we import 50% of our refined fuel needs in France, which partly comes from the area affected by the conflict between the United States and Iran. "Fuel coverage does not allow absorbing" the entire surge. Unfortunately, the situation in the Gulf leaves little room for optimism. In addition, according to a note from the IATA on the risks that weigh on the jet crack, "diesel tends to be the main driver of the profitability of refineries. The war in Iran has further highlighted the vulnerabilities of the aviation fuel supply chains, making the management of fuel costs increasingly difficult for airlines, in addition to the direct impact of the increase in the price of jet fuel." Under these conditions, it is simple to understand that, when your main expense item is rising, the situation becomes complicated, even unmanageable for some actors. According to the IATA, jet fuel should represent 31.4% of the global operating expenses of airlines this year, compared to 25.4% in 2025. According to a specialist, these rates would even be higher in France. "This doubling of the barrel has important consequences. Fuel will represent between 40 and 45% of the costs, compared to 25% last year. At the same time, prices remain low, all companies are making promotions," estimates this seasoned industry professional. While knowing that jet fuel shows the highest price in Europe, at 192.38 dollars, compared to 181.89 dollars in the United States and 164.72 dollars in the Middle East. The additional cost of this surge in prices was estimated at around 100 billion dollars in June. "There is a limit to everything, at some point, we will have to increase prices."