A new study reveals how electric vehicle policies could shape automotive jobs in Europe by 2035, with potential gains or losses depending on policy choices.
Study examines EV impact on automotive jobs
A study by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), titled Powering jobs: Employment under the EU's passenger car CO₂ standards, explores how the shift to electric vehicles (EVs) might affect employment in Europe’s automotive industry under different policy scenarios.EU’s CO₂ standards drive EV transition
The European Union has set strict CO₂ emission targets, requiring a 15% reduction in average emissions for new vehicle fleets between 2025-2027, 55% by 2030, and 100% by 2035 compared to 2021 levels. This means that by 2035, only zero-emission vehicles, primarily battery electric vehicles (BEVs), can be sold in the EU.Current standards predict stable employment
Under the "Current Standards" scenario, where the EU keeps its existing rules and mandates that all new cars sold in 2035 be BEVs, the ICCT estimates that total employment in the automotive sector would remain largely stable, with a 2% increase compared to 2025. This is expected to happen as growth in BEV-related jobs offsets losses from the decline of traditional gasoline-powered vehicles.Active industrial policy boosts jobs
In the "Policy Action" scenario, where the EU introduces policies to boost local EV and battery production, the study forecasts a 10% rise in employment, or about 320,000 additional jobs, between 2025 and 2035. This scenario also predicts a higher share of BEVs and plug-in hybrids produced in Europe, reaching 75% of total sales.Delayed standards lead to job losses
If the EU delays applying its CO₂ standards by five years, pushing the 100% BEV sales target to 2040, the ICCT estimates a 6% drop in employment, or up to 185,000 fewer jobs, between 2025 and 2035. In this case, only 33% of new cars sold in 2030 would be BEVs, with a much lower share of these vehicles produced in the EU.
