Job potential from electric vehicle transition

A new study by the environmental organization Transport & Environment (T&E), carried out by the German research institute Fraunhofer ISI, suggests that increasing the use of electric vehicles in corporate fleets could create up to 344,000 new jobs in Europe by 2030. This projection assumes that electric vehicles are produced within Europe rather than imported.

Economic impact of electrification

The study outlines three scenarios for the shift to electric vehicles. In the most ambitious case, 344,000 additional jobs could be created, along with 18 billion euros in investments and 20 billion euros in added value. Even with less ambitious goals, the number of potential new jobs would still reach 196,000.

France's role in the transition

France is expected to gain 13,200 additional jobs by 2030 from this shift, alongside 800 million euros in value creation and 750 million euros in cumulative investments between 2026 and 2030. This would place France sixth in the rankings of countries studied, behind Germany, Poland, and Slovakia.

Growth of electric vehicle market

According to the study, electric vehicles would make up 47% of corporate vehicle sales in 2030 under the reference scenario. This share would increase to 52% with moderate measures and 69% in the most ambitious scenario. The variation in job estimates is partly due to these differences in market penetration.

Policy recommendations for growth

To achieve these outcomes, T&E is calling for stricter European regulations, including a target of 45% zero-emission vehicles in large fleets by 2030. The organization also suggests that public subsidies should only support vehicles produced in Europe. From January 1, 2028, tax benefits and other support would be reserved for vehicles that meet local production standards, including the origin of batteries and electronic components.

Battery production and employment

The study highlights the importance of battery manufacturing, noting that in Poland, cell production could grow from 31 to 81 gigawatt-hours by 2030. This increase would create 38,500 additional jobs, with 82% of those positions in the battery sector.

Volkswagen's transformation

The study also looks at Volkswagen, a major player in the automotive industry. The company plans to cut 35,000 jobs by 2030. However, a faster shift to electric vehicles could create up to 56,300 new jobs for the company. Four of Volkswagen’s German plants could see 25,400 new direct jobs under the most optimistic scenario. Germany, as a whole, would gain 134,000 new jobs from this policy, making it the biggest beneficiary in Europe.

Limitations of the projections

The study’s projections do not account for the full balance of job creation and loss. They reflect additional jobs that could be supported by the scenarios studied, without necessarily offsetting all job losses from the decline of traditional internal combustion engines. However, the study suggests that combining fleet electrification with demand support and local production could help reduce the sector’s challenges.