The German automotive industry is expected to lose nearly 200,000 jobs by 2031, according to a report by the consulting firm Roland Berger for Manager Magazin. The sector had about 692,000 workers at the end of 2025, but this number could drop to around 490,000 by 2031. Major carmakers like Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW, along with their suppliers, have already announced significant workforce reductions. However, Felix Mogge, an automotive specialist at Roland Berger, says the transformation is far from complete. The primary concern is not just the number of jobs at risk, but the reasons behind the decline. For decades, Germany's automotive model relied on producing high-tech cars and exporting them globally. However, this model is no longer as effective. Roland Berger estimates that Chinese manufacturers can produce cars with similar technology at a cost advantage of up to 30%. This cost edge is not only due to lower wages but also because Chinese companies can develop vehicles 25 to 30% faster and at a cost 20 to 30% lower than Western competitors. About 60% of this cost difference comes from design and architecture choices, not just labor costs. Even if Chinese manufacturers produce in Europe, they may still retain a large part of their efficiency advantage. Roland Berger estimates that more than half of this efficiency gain can remain after partially relocating the production process to Europe, and in some cases, up to 80% of the advantage could be retained. The gap is especially clear in battery production, where China has an extremely integrated industry with significant production volumes and an industrial lead built over years. The International Energy Agency estimates that the average cost of batteries made in China is 30% lower than in Europe. For electric cars built in China, the lower cost of the powertrain alone accounts for nearly 40% of the production cost gap with advanced economies. Manufacturing a car in a country with lower setup costs could save about 2,000 euros per vehicle, which is significant at the scale of large production plants. Future job cuts could extend beyond factories to include offices and support functions. Indirect roles such as development, administration, engineering, and management could be significantly reorganized. Roland Berger estimates that up to a third of these indirect jobs could disappear in the long term. A significant portion of these tasks could be taken over by artificial intelligence tools, including in management functions. The share of software in the costs of automotive development could exceed 50% before 2030, compared to about 25% today. The industry will need to eliminate certain positions while hiring or training for new skills. There will be less demand for some traditional functions and more for specialists in software, batteries, robotics, and artificial intelligence. However, time is pressing. A European manufacturer can still take four years or more to develop a new vehicle, but Chinese competitors have already shortened these timelines. Reducing development time allows for lower engineering costs, fewer vehicle variants, and faster updates to embedded technologies. BMW is showing another possible path forward, as the Bavarian manufacturer has announced about 2 billion euros in investments to modernize its Munich and Dingolfing plants, including a new battery production line. The Munich site is set to become a production center for the next generation of electric Series 3. This illustrates that job losses are not necessarily the end of the industry. Some plants can still be modernized and become more productive. The real challenge is to determine which plants can regain enough capacity to remain competitive. The German automotive industry will not disappear overnight, but it could become significantly smaller. The 200,000 jobs mentioned by Roland Berger could be only the visible consequence of a much deeper transformation, with a Germany producing fewer cars, with fewer employees, but needing to do so much more efficiently to remain a major player in the global automotive industry.