Global air travel demand drops slightly in September 2026

The global demand for passenger air transport decreased by 0.5% in September 2026 compared to the same month in 2025, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). While the decline is smaller than in August, challenges in the Middle East and North America continue to affect the industry.

RPK measures air travel demand

IATA uses the number of revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) to measure demand, which considers both the number of passengers and the distances they travel. The 0.5% decrease in RPK does not necessarily mean a 0.5% drop in the number of passengers. Meanwhile, global capacity, measured in available seat kilometers, fell by 0.2%, and the average load factor dropped 0.3 percentage points to 83.2%.

International traffic shows slight improvement

International air traffic saw a 0.4% increase in September, with a 0.5% rise in capacity. The load factor was 83.6%, down 0.1 percentage points. Excluding Middle Eastern carriers, international demand grew by 1.7%. IATA notes that most major routes are improving compared to August, though performance varies by region.

European carriers see growth, transatlantic route declines

European carriers experienced a 1.8% increase in international demand, with capacity rising 1.2%. This allowed the load factor to increase by 0.5 percentage points to 86.1%. However, the transatlantic route continued to decline by 0.6%, though this is less severe than the 2.5% drop in August.

North American carriers stabilize international demand

North American carriers reported stable international demand, while reducing capacity by 1.9%. This led to a 1.6 percentage point increase in the load factor, reaching 84.9%. Despite this, the transatlantic corridor remains a concern.

Asia-Pacific sees mixed international performance

International air travel in the Asia-Pacific region increased by 0.7%, with growth on four of the six main international route sets. The Europe-Asia route saw the strongest increase at 11.9%, followed by the North America-Asia route at 5.8%. However, Middle East-Asia connections fell by 8.8%, and intra-Asia connections declined by 0.9%.

Middle Eastern carriers face significant decline

Middle Eastern carriers experienced a 7.5% drop in international demand, with a 3.3% decrease in capacity. The load factor fell 3.6 percentage points to 78.3%. The decline in Middle East-Asia connections worsened from 7.9% in August to 8.8%.

Latin American and African carriers show strong growth

Latin American and African carriers reported the highest international growth rates, at 8.2% and 8%, respectively. However, in Africa, capacity is increasing faster than demand, leading to a 0.6 percentage point drop in the load factor to 74.8%.

Domestic air travel demand continues to fall

Domestic air travel demand decreased by 2.2% in September, with a 1.3% drop in capacity. The average load factor fell 0.7 percentage points to 82.5%. Growth in Australia, Brazil, and China did not offset declines in other major markets.

U.S. and Indian domestic demand drops

In the United States, domestic air traffic declined by 2.7%, possibly linked to weak consumer confidence, though IATA does not confirm this as a definite cause. In India, demand dropped by 8.3%, the largest decline of the year.

Weather impacts Japan, while others grow

Japan saw a 0.8% decline in domestic demand, partly due to weather disruptions during the "Silver Week" holiday. In contrast, domestic markets in Australia, Brazil, and China grew by 4.5%, 3.1%, and 2%, respectively.

IATA predicts continued uneven growth

IATA expects global seat supply to remain above 2025 levels in October and November, but growth will be slow and uneven across regions. Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s chief economist, notes that geopolitical uncertainty and fluctuating fuel prices will likely continue to influence these trends.