Global air freight demand rises sharply

Global air freight demand increased by 7.7% in September 2026 compared to the same month in 2025, according to data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). This growth is driven by exchanges between Asia and North America, with the Asia-North America axis recording the strongest growth among major corridors, with traffic increasing by 17% in September.

Asia-North America corridor leads growth

International exchanges within Asia also increased by 10.2%, while traffic between Europe and North America rose by 9.3% and between Europe and Asia by 6%. The Europe-Asia corridor is experiencing its 43rd consecutive month of growth, showing a long-term trend of increasing trade between these two regions.

Demand outpaces capacity growth

On international routes alone, the increase reaches 8.6%. This demand is measured in tonne-kilometers of freight, or CTK: one ton of cargo transported over 1,000 kilometers represents 1,000 CTK. The transport capacities offered by airlines are growing more slowly: they increase by 2.7% globally and by 3.3% on international routes alone.

Load factor rises as capacity lags

Since the demand is growing faster than freight capacities, the available space is being used more intensively. The global load factor, which measures the ratio between the realized freight traffic and the offered capacities, reaches 47.9%, compared to 45.7% in September 2025. It gains 2.2 percentage points over the year.

Regional performance varies widely

For the first nine months of 2026, global demand, measured in CTK, increases by 5% compared to the period from January to September 2025. North American carriers show the strongest regional growth, with demand up 11.8%, for capacities almost stable, at +0.8%. Asia-Pacific carriers follow with an 8.6% increase in traffic and 4.9% in supply.

European carriers see improved load factors

In Europe, demand increases by 4.5%, while capacities decline by 1.6%. The load factor of European carriers thus increases by 3.2 points, to 54.6%, the highest level among the six regions studied. This reflects a more efficient use of available freight space in Europe.

Middle East routes face continued decline

Conversely, routes linked to the Middle East remain in difficulty. Traffic decreases by 18% between Europe and the Middle East and by 10.2% between the Middle East and Asia. These two routes record a seventh consecutive month of contraction due to the war with Iran, which is disrupting trade and transport in the region.

Jet fuel prices strain carrier profits

The surge in jet fuel prices is putting the profitability of carriers under pressure. In September, the price of aviation fuel increases by 17.5% compared to August and by 103.4% year-on-year, according to IATA. At the same time, freight yields - an indicator of unit revenue - increase by 25.9% year-on-year.

Costs outpace revenue gains

"The challenge is the costs. Jet fuel prices have more than doubled compared to last year, and yields have not kept up," warns Marie Owens Thomsen, chief economist and chief sustainability officer of IATA. "There is no shortage of goods to transport, but doing so profitably, in the face of sustainably high fuel prices, has become more difficult."

IATA warns of ongoing cost pressures

IATA expects high air freight prices to remain in the short term, linked to fuel costs due to the situation in the Middle East. It also highlights the risk of new disruptions in crude oil supplies and refined product flows, in a context of geopolitical instability. These factors could further strain the profitability of airlines.

Global trade and manufacturing remain strong

The economic indicators cited by the association remain nonetheless upward. In August, global trade increased by 3.6% year-on-year, recording the 42nd consecutive month of expansion. World manufacturing activity also supports freight. In August, the PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index, or "index of purchasing managers") for manufacturing production increased by 0.7 points to 53.8, while that for new export orders increased by 0.5 points to 51.9.

Sector faces cost challenges despite growth

The two indicators reached their highest level in five years, according to IATA. The sector is thus approaching the last months of the year with sustained demand, but operating costs are limiting the benefits of this growth. Airlines are navigating a period of strong demand but are struggling with rising expenses.