Fertilizer prices in France rose in September 2026, with different products experiencing varying levels of increase. Nitrogen-based fertilizers saw the most significant price jumps, with urea rising by 50 € per tonne, followed by ammonium nitrate (+35 €/t) and nitrogen solution (+25 €/t). In contrast, the price of potash changed very little. These increases are partly due to a global shortage of urea and the rising cost of natural gas, a key component in nitrogen fertilizer production. Geopolitical tensions, including the conflict between the United States and Iran, and the war between Russia and Ukraine, are disrupting natural gas extraction and fertilizer exports. The Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea, important shipping routes, have also been affected, complicating the transport of these resources. On the demand side, farmers have access to enough ammonium nitrate, as French producers like Borealis and Yara have maintained their output. However, the supply of urea and nitrogen solution is limited, and farmers are struggling with liquidity issues. Industry experts estimate that only 25% of the demand for nitrogen fertilizers is currently being met, compared to 50% to 60% under normal conditions. Storage facilities are reaching their limits, and transportation constraints are expected to worsen by the end of the year, according to distributors. Industry players predict a 20% drop in farmers' demand for nitrogen fertilizers during the 2026-2027 sales season. Phosphate-based fertilizers, including binaries, ternaries, DAP, and TSP, have also seen price increases, though less dramatic than those for nitrogen fertilizers, with gains ranging from 0 €/t to 10 €/t between August and September 2026. Sulfur, a crucial ingredient for producing sulfuric acid used in phosphate fertilizer production, cannot be exported from the Middle East due to the conflict between the United States and Iran. This has led to extremely high prices for phosphorus units, and the French market is nearly inactive, with coverage delays growing steadily. Looking ahead, fertilizer prices for both nitrogen and phosphate are expected to stay high. Continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Russia, and Ukraine are unlikely to lead to a drop in the prices of natural gas and sulfur, essential for fertilizer production. Even if these raw material prices were to fall in the near future, any resulting decrease in fertilizer costs would likely be too late to impact the February delivery schedule for farmers. Potash prices, which rose by 5 €/t between August and September 2026, should remain relatively stable, as this fertilizer is primarily mined in Europe and is less affected by global supply chain disruptions.