The World Bank’s latest Pink Sheet highlights a notable rise in energy and cereal prices in September, with different impacts across the Maghreb region, which includes Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia. Algeria benefits from higher hydrocarbon revenues, while Morocco struggles in its fertilizer sector, and Tunisia faces a worsening energy deficit. The data, published on October 2, show that the Brent crude oil price increased from $90.9 in August to $116.8 in September, marking a nearly 29% rise in a single month. European natural gas prices climbed by about 20%, and corn prices rose 7%, while wheat prices increased by approximately 5 to 6%. Algeria is best equipped to handle the price surge, as higher energy prices bring in significantly more revenue. Although it continues to import large amounts of cereals, equipment, and intermediate goods, the increased wheat and corn prices raise its costs. The September Brent price was nearly 70% above its 2025 average of $69, and European gas prices are more than twice their average from last year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has noted that the rise in hydrocarbon prices is increasing Algeria’s export and budget revenues and has urged the country to use these funds to consolidate its budget. Morocco lacks the energy reserves of Algeria and is fully exposed to rising oil prices. Instead, it depends on phosphates and fertilizers, which are also experiencing significant price increases. DAP, a major phosphate fertilizer tracked by the World Bank, was priced at $800.6 per ton in September, compared to an average of $685 in 2025. Natural phosphate has remained at $170 per ton since July, compared to $152.5 last year. However, these high prices have not translated into higher revenues for OCP, Morocco’s largest phosphate producer. In the first quarter of 2026, OCP’s revenue fell by nearly 7% to 20.1 billion dirhams, with the rise in selling prices only partially offsetting the drop in sales volume and exchange rate effects. Mid-year results, released in September, confirm this trend, with revenue of 48.4 billion dirhams, a 7.3% decline, and a 28% drop in gross operating profit. OCP attributes this decline to increased costs for sulfur and ammonia, which could not be fully passed on to customers due to buyer constraints. Phosphate fertilizer sales have also dropped by about 22% across the sector, with reduced demand in India, Europe, and Africa. Tunisia imports most of its energy and lacks both a significant petroleum industry like Algeria’s and a major fertilizer sector like OCP. Its energy deficit was already substantial before the September price surge. According to the National Institute of Statistics, Tunisia’s trade deficit for the first eight months of 2026 reached 17.85 billion dinars, up from 14.64 billion a year earlier. The energy deficit alone amounts to 8.93 billion dinars, compared to 7.15 billion during the same period in 2025, or nearly half of the total deficit. The import coverage rate by exports has fallen from 73.9% to 71.4%. Data as of the end of August do not yet reflect the September Brent price increase, but they show that food product imports have risen by 17.1%. Phosphates offer little relief, as exports from the mining, phosphates, and derivatives sector have declined by 12% during the same period.