A surge in global mineral prices is benefiting several African economies, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia, and Ghana, according to the World Bank. Copper prices have approached 14,500 dollars per tonne, while gold remains above 4,300 dollars per ounce. The gap between current prices and those of 2025 amounts to billions of dollars in export revenues for these countries. Monthly data published by the World Bank on October 2, known as the "Pink Sheet," indicate that several metals are reaching exceptional levels alongside rising oil and cereal prices. Copper averaged 14,474 dollars per tonne in September, compared to 9,947 dollars for the entire year of 2025, representing an increase of more than 45 percent. Copper was already at 14,326 dollars per tonne in August. Zinc has crossed the 4,000 dollars per tonne threshold, and aluminum remains above 3,280 dollars.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia, the first copper producers on the continent, are at the forefront of this trend. Copper and cobalt ensure the majority of Congolese mining exports and a significant part of foreign exchange earnings. In its report on the DRC published at the beginning of the year, the IMF assumed export prices for copper between approximately 9,000 and 10,000 dollars per tonne for the coming years. The Fund attributed the stability of the Congolese franc since the end of 2025 in part to a decreasing current account deficit, driven by "favorable price evolution of export minerals." International reserves reached 8.8 billion dollars by the end of March, a level still slightly below the threshold of three months of imports. The IMF also noted a slight slowdown in the extractive sector because the improvement is more due to prices than volumes. If copper remains around 14,500 dollars, the value of Congolese exports will mechanically increase, leading to more foreign exchange and mining tax revenues. However, each additional dollar will not necessarily reach the state's coffers. The share of rent captured by Kinshasa will depend on mining contracts, the costs of operators and the tax regime, as well as the country's ability to actually increase its production.
In Zambia, copper accounts for two-thirds of exports. In its report of February 2026, devoted to the sixth and last review of the program supported by the Extended Fund Facility, the IMF forecasted about 14.7 billion dollars in goods exports for 2026, of which nearly 9.7 billion for copper alone. The metal thus represents about two-thirds of the country's export revenues. The Fund also measured Zambia's vulnerability to prices because a 10 percent decrease in copper prices in 2026 would have been enough to turn the expected current account surplus of 1.7 percent of GDP into a deficit of 0.6 percent of GDP. With copper nearly 45 percent above its 2025 average, the mechanism now works in the opposite direction. The rise in prices occurs as Lusaka has set the goal of increasing its copper production to three million tonnes per year by 2031 and seeks to consolidate its recovery after the 2020 default and the restructuring of its debt. At constant volumes, the increase already improves the terms of trade. If production follows, the effect on exports and foreign exchange will be even more pronounced, and public revenues could benefit.
In Ghana, gold averaged 4,319 dollars per ounce in September, a slight decline compared to August (4,411 dollars), but the metal remains well above its 2025 average (3,442 dollars) and that of 2024 (2,388 dollars). Ghana provides the clearest illustration. According to the IMF, gold now represents more than half of Ghana's exports, compared to only a fifth in 2021. The rise in prices, the increase in production, and better capture of artisanal gold have significantly improved the current account balance. The cedi appreciated by 41 percent against the dollar in nominal terms in 2025. In the same year, the country exported 104 tonnes of gold from alluvial mining and small mines, for 10.9 billion dollars, or 9.5 percent of GDP, according to the IMF report published in August.
Other major producers on the continent, from South Africa to Mali, passing through Burkina Faso, also benefit, to varying degrees, from these price levels. For oil and food importing economies, the surge in raw materials translates into higher inflation and a heavier external bill. Mining countries, on the other hand, see their terms of trade improve significantly. The translation of these gains into public finances remains uncertain.
Surge in Mineral Prices Benefits African Exporters, With Uncertain Fiscal Gains
AI-rewritten from original reportingHow it works
mineral-pricesafrican-economycoppergoldworld-bankimf



