Sanctions and energy flows

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the European Union has imposed numerous sanctions to weaken the Russian economy. However, Russian hydrocarbons continue to flow into Europe. Moscow has stated that it has delivered more than 320 billion dollars worth of oil, gas and derivatives to EU member states since that date.

Russian official confirms figures

Alexandre Novak, Russian Deputy Prime Minister in charge of Energy, specified on October 12, 2026 that 320.7 billion dollars worth of hydrocarbons had been delivered to Europe since 2022. "Despite the restrictions, we are still supplying energy resources through certain exemptions," he said on Russian television. For the first nine months of 2026, European purchases would have reached 21.3 billion dollars, or about 19 billion euros.

EU disputes Russian figures

Brussels quickly disputed these figures. According to the European Commission, the EU would have spent about 197 billion euros, or 209 billion dollars, up to July 2026. This gap of more than 110 billion dollars raises questions about the calculation methods used and about the indirect flows of Russian hydrocarbons.

Limited direct imports from Russia

Although sanctions have reduced the EU's energy dependence on Russia, they have not completely stopped imports. Today, only 2% of the oil imported into Europe comes directly from Russia, via pipelines to Hungary and Slovakia, benefiting from an explicit exemption. For gas, about 12% of European imports still come from Russia, compared to 45% before the invasion.

Expert comments on energy dependence

Thierry Bros, an energy expert, notes: "We were too dependent on Russian gas, especially because of Germany, which had chosen this dependence. Getting out of this situation is complicated and will take several years." However, official figures do not capture the full extent of the flows. Moscow does not include Russian hydrocarbons processed in third countries such as India, Turkey and China, then re-exported to Europe under a different apparent origin, making traceability difficult.

Challenges in tracking hydrocarbon flows

"When a product leaves Russia, transits through another country, is processed there, and then returns to the European market, it becomes difficult to determine its exact origin," explains Maria Demertzis, an economist at the European University Institute. These flows escape official statistics and likely increase the amounts indirectly paid to Moscow.

Persistent energy vulnerability

Despite diversification efforts, Europe's energy vulnerability persists. The EU now sources 31% of its gas from Norway and 26% from the United States, but the transition is not complete. European gas stocks are currently below the expected level, reducing the EU's ability to absorb new sanctions or to face a harsh winter.

Concerns over gas reserves

Maria Demertzis notes: "Gas reserves this year are lower than last year, which means that Europe is entering winter with less safety margin." The tensions on oil and gas prices reflect a fragile global energy situation.

EU gas import embargo

The EU has set a total embargo on Russian gas imports, effective September 30, 2027. Until then, long-term LNG contracts remain allowed, while short-term contracts have been banned since the last package of sanctions. Patrice Geoffron, an economics professor, explains: "This will be costly and complicated depending on the winter conditions. But the stakes go beyond economics: it is also a matter of collective security."

Criticism of EU strategy

Swedish Foreign Affairs Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard criticized the EU for a strategic inconsistency during a meeting in Luxembourg. "We buy more Russian products than we help Ukraine," she said. She suggests using frozen Russian assets in the EU to increase support for Ukraine, a proposal controversial for fear of retaliation from Moscow. Russian figures have also fueled American criticisms.

Russia's evasion tactics

To circumvent sanctions, Russia uses a "ghost fleet" of aging tankers, often uninsured, under compliant flags. These ships allow Moscow to continue its exports at reduced prices, notably to Asia, avoiding controls. The interception of a suspected tanker by the French Navy near La Réunion illustrates the difficulty of stopping these traffic.

Incident with a suspected Russian tanker

Emmanuel Macron stated that the DF Peak ship is suspected of sailing under a false flag and being involved in a fuel trafficking. Moscow denounced a "flagrant violation of international law" and "piracy." The Russian embassy in France is checking the presence of Russian nationals among the crew.

Gradual energy transition

European energy independence from Russia will take time. Gas infrastructure, long-term contracts and immediate needs impose a gradual transition. Charlotte de Montpellier, an economist at ING, notes that Europe does not produce its gas and oil, unlike the United States.

EU's role in Russia's war effort

However, purchases of Russian hydrocarbons indirectly support Moscow's war effort. "These hydrocarbons, sold by Russian companies linked to the authorities, contribute to the Russian state budget. Saying that we are financing the war is reductive, but we depend on foreign resources," specifies Charlotte de Montpellier.

Reduced EU support for Russia's war

She points out that due to sanctions, the EU's contribution to Russia's war effort has decreased. The reduction in Russian gas imports from 45% to 12% shows a political will, although deemed insufficient by some member states and Ukraine.