Russia's historical narrative

Russia's imperial ambitions have long relied on territorial expansion and military strength, but today, they increasingly depend on the support of China. This shift is highlighted in an article by Laure Mandeville in Le Figaro, which challenges the idea that Russia and Ukraine are two "brother peoples" divided by an absurd conflict.

Myth of a shared past

The article criticizes the notion that Putin's vision of "Russia-Eurasia" is a continuation of the ancient Rus' of Kiev, once connected to medieval Europe. It argues that Ukraine is not a "second Slav" but a key barrier for Europe and a Western outpost facing Russia, which is described as a "poor and aggressive power."

Origins of Russia's identity

Historically, Kyiv and the medieval principalities of Eastern Slavia were more advanced than Moscow, which was then a small village. The Mongol invasion in the 13th century led to the rise of Muscovy, which later adopted the name "Russia" under Ivan the Terrible. This period marked a historical break from the West, shaping Russia's identity as a "poor power."

Concept of the "poor power"

The term "poor power" was coined by historian Georges Sokoloff, who argued that Russia's imperial ambitions are constrained by its economic and social limitations. He traced this concept through historical reforms, which often followed military defeats, and highlighted how Russia's economic development lagged behind the West despite periods of modernization.

Historical economic divergence

According to Sokoloff's research, based on the works of Angus Maddison and data from the CEPII, the Rus' of Kyiv was on par with Western Europe in 1000. However, by 1500, the region that would become Russia was significantly behind, due to the Mongol invasion and the lack of Western-style reforms and development.

Modernization and economic growth

During the "bourgeois tsardom" period, Russia experienced economic growth with developments like the Trans-Siberian Railway and the conversion of the ruble. However, by the eve of World War I, Russia's GDP per capita was only a fraction of that in Western Europe and the United States, highlighting the widening gap.

Post-Soviet economic challenges

Following the two world wars and the collapse of the USSR, Russia's GDP per capita stagnated and declined. The difficult reforms of the 1990s and the rise in oil prices in the 2000s helped partially close the gap, but by 2014, Russia's GDP per capita was still only two fifths of that of Western Europe, lower than it was fifty years earlier.

Sanctions and economic decline

Western sanctions after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 further damaged the Russian economy, limiting access to global markets and technology. The impact of these sanctions has been compounded by the ongoing conflict, making it uncertain whether Donald Trump's decision to lift some sanctions in 2026 will reverse this trend.

Sino-Russian economic alliance

China's support for Russia, including economic aid, helps sustain Russia's war economy. This alliance aligns with China's strategic goals, positioning Russia as a "great rear" in potential future conflicts with the West. Despite this partnership, the economic gap between Russia and the West remains significant.