Russian oil production has dropped to 494 million tons, the lowest level since 2009, according to a recent report. This decline is attributed to Ukrainian drone attacks and Western sanctions imposed in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. To offset these losses, the Russian government has increased taxes in key sectors like mining and fertilizers, sold confiscated assets, and continues its military campaign in Ukraine and against Europe. Russia's estimated military budget for 2027 is 180 billion euros. While some analysts in the West believe Russia's economic weakening could end the war, others argue that the country's strategic alliances, such as with the Chinese Communist Party, play a crucial role in sustaining its war efforts. The Russian economy relies heavily on a few major export sectors, including oil and gas, uranium, grain, fertilizers, and mining products, as well as the civil nuclear industry and the military-industrial complex. These sectors account for 13% of the country's GDP and two-thirds of its foreign trade, providing the financial backbone for the war economy. Russian oil and gas exports, often referred to as the "jugular vein" of the war economy, are vital, though some analysts suggest that support from China may help Russia sustain its military operations in Ukraine or even parts of Europe. The Russian government has long maintained the perception that fuel remains affordable, a key element of the unspoken agreement between President Vladimir Putin and Russian citizens. However, this perception is reportedly beginning to erode, even if some argue that no formal political contract ever existed. The 2008 invasion of Georgia marked a turning point in Putin's consolidation of power, and the regime's control over political life, the economy, civil society, and the population has continued to strengthen. Concerns about political risks for Putin include disparities in resource availability between isolated regions and "fat Moscow," the capital. However, the regime's grip on the "power vertical," including the siloviki—individuals from the security and military sectors—is considered essential for maintaining control. While some peripheral regions, which are partly populated by non-Russians, may have centrifugal forces, they are not seen as capable of challenging the "Putin system" directly. The geopolitical landscape is increasingly favorable for Beijing, which continues to support Russia, along with Iran. China's long-term strategy, under President Xi Jinping, has led to an unprecedented state visit to the United States, where former President Donald Trump has acknowledged a form of geopolitical parity with the Chinese Communist Party. In the Arabo-Persian Gulf and the Middle East, the potential withdrawal of U.S. influence is also a factor. Western democracies are urged to strengthen their political resolve, rearm, and commit more to Ukraine, particularly in protecting its airspace. Without such measures, the challenges and threats facing the West may not be adequately addressed. Despite the crumbling Russian economic model, Chinese support is seen as critical in enabling Russia to continue its war efforts.