Chinese manufacturing activity declines

The official Chinese manufacturing activity index fell to 49.3 in October 2026, compared to 50.1 in September, according to figures published on October 31 by China's National Bureau of Statistics. This number indicates that companies surveyed report an overall worsening of their business conditions compared to the previous month.

Key indicators show contraction

The production sub-index fell from 51.7 to 49.8, while the new orders sub-index declined from 50.5 to 49.4. Small and medium-sized enterprises appear particularly vulnerable, with their PMI reaching 47.5 and 48.4 respectively, while large enterprises remain just above the expansion threshold at 50.2.

Non-manufacturing activity also weakens

The non-manufacturing activity index, which includes services and construction, also fell to 49.7, compared to 50.2 in September. In construction, the activity sub-index dropped to 48.0. Export orders fell to 48.7, compared to 50.0 in September, and imports showed an index of 47.0.

Economic analysts highlight factors

According to a Reuters report published on October 31, the decline in China's manufacturing activity reflects hesitant domestic demand and a drop in foreign orders following a more dynamic September. Official figures also show disparities, with large enterprises being more resilient than smaller ones, and some advanced industrial activities continuing to progress.

Economic interdependence with Europe

China is both a market and a major source of intermediate and finished products for the European economy. A less supported Chinese demand can affect the outlook for exporters selling their products there. Conversely, a Chinese industry seeking more foreign clients can strengthen competition on certain European markets. The extent of these effects will depend on the sectors, contracts, and commercial decisions of companies.

European growth shows mixed results

The publication of these figures comes as growth disparities within Europe are themselves marked. According to a Eurostat rapid estimate of October 30, the euro zone's GDP grew by 0.4 percent in the third quarter of 2026, while French activity declined by 0.1 percent. These figures measure a different period and should not be confused with the monthly results of the Chinese survey.