Chinese solar exports fall in 2026

Chinese solar panel exports dropped by 9.6 percent between January and September 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, according to a report by the Shanghai Metals Market (SMM). This decline follows a period of increased demand earlier in the year driven by concerns over supply security due to the Middle East conflict.

Main export market sees decline

Europe, the largest destination for Chinese solar panels, saw a 21.6 percent year-on-year drop in imports during September 2026. This decline is attributed to rising module prices, uncertain profitability of solar projects, and challenges in integrating new solar capacity into existing electrical grids.

Tax change impacts export costs

A key factor behind the decline in Chinese solar exports is the removal of a 9 percent VAT reimbursement on solar panel exports, which took effect on April 1, 2026. This tax change increased the cost of exported panels and slowed orders, as buyers tried to stock up before the deadline.

Export activity fluctuates throughout the year

Chinese solar exports saw a strong start to the year, with monthly shipments reaching 16 to 20 gigawatts (GW) from May to August. However, these figures declined significantly, though a rebound occurred in September, with exports rising to 23.92 GW, a 44 percent increase from August.

Middle East becomes a growth area

The Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia, emerged as a key growth area for Chinese solar exports in 2026. Deliveries to Saudi Arabia almost quadrupled from 0.74 GW in August to 2.90 GW in September, contributing to the overall increase in September exports.

European market faces multiple challenges

Beyond rising prices, European solar markets are facing additional challenges, including declining public subsidies and the need for upgraded electrical infrastructure to handle renewable energy fluctuations. These factors are making it harder to maintain strong demand for solar installations.