Chinese solar module prices remain stable

In its latest weekly analysis published in pv magazine, OPIS, a company within the Dow Jones group, reviews the main price trends on the global photovoltaic market. The export prices for Chinese TOPCon technology modules have remained stable for the second consecutive week, despite efforts by major polysilicon producers to establish price floors for modules and polysilicon.

CMM index unchanged

According to the OPIS Global Solar Markets report published on October 20, the Chinese module reference index (CMM), established by OPIS for TOPCon modules under 645 W manufactured in China, remained unchanged at 0.107 dollars per watt, or 0.092 euros per watt, on a free on board (FOB) basis from China.

Forward prices stay steady

Forward prices have also remained stable. Deliveries scheduled for the first quarter of 2027 were valued at 0.106 dollars per watt, or 0.091 euros per watt, while those for the second to fourth quarters of 2027 were set at 0.105 dollars per watt, or 0.090 euros per watt.

Price floors proposed

Within the pricing framework discussed during a meeting organized on October 11 in Hangzhou by the eight major Chinese polysilicon manufacturers, minimum selling prices of 0.79 yuan per watt for TOPCon modules and 0.86 yuan per watt for back-contact modules were proposed. These amounts correspond respectively to approximately 0.101 euros and 0.110 euros per watt on a FOB basis from China, according to the dollar equivalences indicated in the document.

Skepticism about price stability

Market actors, however, remain skeptical about the ability of these measures to support prices, in a context of persistent overcapacity and weakness in downstream demand. Several industry sources have expressed doubts about the sustainability of this pricing discipline.

Self-regulation lacks legal force

The self-regulation agreements within the industry do not constitute legally binding price controls and their effectiveness depends on the willingness of manufacturers to comply with them. A source working for a major integrated Chinese manufacturer also estimated that the proposed mechanism for setting module prices would be difficult to implement.

Efforts seen as unrealistic

According to this source, the efforts of major polysilicon producers to impose their prices on downstream module manufacturers could be considered a "unilateral illusion." In October 2024, the Chinese Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) had published an estimate of the production cost of photovoltaic modules, set at 0.087 euros per watt.

Non-binding cost recommendations

This initiative aimed to combat offers below production costs in tenders for large projects. Industry sources, however, have pointed out that this pricing recommendation had no binding character. Manufacturers could therefore continue to submit offers below the recommended threshold.

Inventory pressures persist

According to several sources, the weakness in installation demand and the pressure to sell inventory before the end of the year could also undermine price stabilization efforts. A vertically integrated top-tier manufacturer indicated that module shipments had been moderated in the third quarter.

Price cuts expected in Q4

Producers could therefore reduce their prices in the fourth quarter to stimulate sales volumes, defend their market shares, and support their revenue. This manufacturer expects prices to remain stable or decrease slightly until the end of the year.

Short-term outlook uncertain

Another downstream manufacturer in the value chain estimated that short-term prospects would also depend on the ability of producers to achieve higher selling prices for existing inventory. It added that many manufacturers were strongly incentivized to sell their inventory during the last quarter.

Efficiency standards to rise

Outlooks are less clear for high-efficiency modules. Demand could strengthen in 2027 as China plans to impose stricter efficiency requirements and increase the adoption of high-efficiency technologies in its domestic market.

New efficiency thresholds

The mandatory national standard to be implemented on January 1, 2027, sets minimum efficiencies of 23.2% for N-type TOPCon modules, 23.2% for heterojunction (HJT) modules, and 23.5% for back-contact (BC) modules.

2026 efficiency targets proposed

On October 16, the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) proposed higher thresholds in its draft standard conditions for the 2026 photovoltaic manufacturing industry. The minimum efficiencies envisioned reach respectively 23.4% for N-type TOPCon modules, 23.4% for HJT modules, and 23.7% for BC modules.

Export controls proposed

China has proposed to subject twelve photovoltaic technologies to export controls, including those related to polysilicon production, silicon wafers, solar cells, and the technological management of essential equipment. According to this proposal, certain technologies, such as perovskite tandem cells, could be classified among the technologies whose export is prohibited.

Impact on exports limited

A market analyst predicts limited effects on Chinese solar product exports, as the new controls primarily target manufacturing technologies rather than finished products. According to this analyst, these measures could strengthen China's dominant technological position by limiting the transfer of exclusive know-how.

Challenges for overseas expansion

Stricter controls could, however, complicate the expansion of overseas production capacities, joint ventures, technology licensing, and equipment shipments involving restricted manufacturing know-how. New registration and licensing requirements could extend project timelines and increase uncertainties, added the analyst.