TOPCon solar cell prices fall in early October

Chinese TOPCon solar cell prices declined at the beginning of October, ending two weeks of stability, amid a slowdown in international demand. According to the OPIS Global Solar Markets report published on October 13, FOB China prices for M10 TOPCon cells fell by 0.86 percent over a week to 0.0463 dollars per watt (approximately 0.040 euros/W), while 210R TOPCon cell prices decreased by 0.66 percent to 0.0454 dollars/W (approximately 0.039 euros/W).

Price declines bring costs to levels below August peaks

These declines bring the prices of both formats to about 13 percent below their peaks at the end of August. Export demand shows signs of weakening after the Golden Week holidays in China, which typically see a surge in domestic activity but a drop in international trade.

U.S. restrictions and Indian market changes affect demand

A trader, aligning with a recent analysis by the Chinese Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMIA), estimates that U.S. restrictions on the storage of certain products should further weaken international demand and affect cell prices. The temporary U.S. measure concerns polysilicon and its derivatives, pending the implementation on December 4 of measures under Section 232. In India, a manufacturer notes a slowdown in advance purchases in the commercial and industrial (C&I) segment.

Extended exemptions in India reduce stockpiling incentives

An extended exemption allows eligible C&I projects commissioned by December 31, 2026, to bypass the requirement for Indian-made and approved solar cells. However, the high FOB prices of Chinese cells and the approach of the deadline make additional stockpiling less financially attractive.

Chinese demand outlook remains uncertain

In China, the CNMIA anticipates a gradual recovery in demand from large solar power plants as the year comes to an end. Purchases necessary to meet project schedules could support the market, but industry actors are questioning whether this rebound can lead to a sustained recovery in installations. According to data from the Chinese National Energy Administration (NEA), the country added 97.19 GW of solar capacity between January and August, a decline of more than 57 percent year-on-year.

Industry forecasts show significant drop in 2026 installations

In February, the Chinese Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) had predicted installations between 180 and 240 GW in 2026, representing a decline of approximately 24 to 43 percent compared to the record of 315.07 GW recorded in 2025. To reach this range, China would need to install between 20.7 and 35.7 GW per month from September to December, compared to about 12.1 GW per month between January and August.

Production expected to drop in October due to new standards

On the supply side, market players anticipate a new decline in cell production in October due to the modernization of production lines ahead of the implementation of new Chinese minimum performance requirements. This mandatory standard, which concerns modules and inverters, will take effect on January 1, 2027. It will prohibit the sale on the domestic market of products that do not meet the required thresholds.

Industry leaders meet to discuss pricing and production

Meanwhile, market sources indicate that leaders from several major solar manufacturers met in Hangzhou on October 11 to discuss cost calculation methods, selling prices, and production reductions. Neither the holding of this meeting nor its presumed conclusions have been officially confirmed. According to industry actors, however, the discussions would have resulted in more detailed implementation plans regarding capacity restrictions, as well as a proposal for a minimum price of 43 yuan/kg for polysilicon, or approximately 5.20 euros/kg including all taxes.

Proposed minimum prices aim to curb low-price dumping

The proposed minimum price for TOPCon modules, expressed as an FOB equivalent, would thus be approximately 9 percent higher than the Chinese Module Marker (CMM), the OPIS reference index for Chinese TOPCon modules under 645 W. This was assessed at 0.107 dollars/W (approximately 0.092 euros/W) in the same report. According to participants, these minimum prices would apply to both exports and domestic market purchases, including within the framework of tenders.

Industry calls for regulation of price-based contracts

The meeting would have also urged competent authorities to investigate public companies that award contracts based solely on the lowest prices and to penalize those whose practices are deemed problematic. Participants would have expressed concerns about the effects of these methods on market order. Industry actors, however, note that industry self-regulation agreements do not constitute legally binding price controls. Actual prices continue to depend on supply and demand fundamentals. The effectiveness of the proposed measures will therefore depend on the willingness of manufacturers to comply with the proposed recommendations.