ChatGPT's lead over Claude and Gemini is shrinking, but analysts predict it will stay ahead by 2037.
ChatGPT leads in web traffic
ChatGPT remains the most popular chatbot in terms of web traffic, receiving 32 times more visits than Claude in August 2025. However, the gap has narrowed slightly over the past year.Claude and Gemini gain ground
Claude and Google's Gemini both saw significant growth in web traffic over the past year. Claude increased its visits by 615% while Gemini saw a 324% rise, challenging ChatGPT's dominance.Market share shifts
According to OneLittleWeb, ChatGPT's market share dropped from 85.6% to 69.1% over the past year. Claude and Gemini each gained 12.6% of the market, but ChatGPT still leads.Growth is not linear
The growth of these chatbots is not consistent. For example, Claude saw a 66.2% increase in visits between March and August 2026, while Gemini only grew by 9.1% during the same period.Simulations predict future trends
Using a statistical model known as AR(1), OneLittleWeb simulated future web traffic trends until April 2037. In only 7.8% of these simulations did Claude surpass ChatGPT, while in most scenarios ChatGPT remained in the lead.Limitations of the study
The study is based on data covering only thirteen months and does not include API usage or mobile applications. Analysts note that direct access to chatbots may decline as more users interact with AI through customized applications.