French business leaders are growing more aware of the risks posed by global political tensions, according to a recent survey by the Institut Géopolitique & Business at ESSEC, in partnership with L'Express. The findings suggest that geopolitical risks are now seen as equally important, if not more so, than artificial intelligence by executives of companies with more than 250 employees. This represents a change from earlier years, when many business leaders were caught off guard and unsure how to respond to such challenges.
The shift in awareness is largely due to ongoing conflicts and trade disputes, which have made it clear how geopolitical events can affect international commerce and military strength. For example, any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz—a key shipping route—could lead to sharply higher insurance costs and create difficulties for major military powers. Although past events, such as the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, had already shaken businesses, the policies of former U.S. President Donald Trump have further shaped how leaders perceive these risks.
The survey found that 30% of respondents see the United States under Donald Trump as the main economic threat, eclipsing concerns about actions by Russia or China. However, business leaders seem less focused on tensions in the Taiwan Strait, even though a conflict there could have major global consequences. Despite this awareness, many executives are still waiting for clear instructions or support from their parent companies before making decisions. Only 19% have fully integrated long-term planning into their strategies, highlighting a gap in how companies prepare for unpredictable foreign policy changes.
The survey raises concerns about whether businesses are ready for future geopolitical challenges. It suggests that simply training executives in geopolitics is not enough; companies need a deeper understanding of their dependencies, regular testing of backup plans, and the use of scenario-based planning to prepare for different outcomes. ESSEC is encouraging tools such as scenario-based forecasting, assessments of critical supply chains, and securing supply chains to improve economic resilience. The French Ministry of Economy has joined forces with ESSEC to create an Observatory of Economic Security, aiming to better equip companies for these challenges.
As technology becomes a key element of global power, businesses are increasingly influencing geopolitical dynamics. For example, Starlink, a satellite internet service, has shown how corporate decisions can impact military operations. With advancements in semiconductors, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and space technology shaping global influence, business leaders must recognize their role in this evolving landscape.
French Business Leaders Awaken to Geopolitical Risks Amid Strategic Shifts
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