Geopolitical tensions are increasingly shaping the dairy trade, impacting a key sector in France, which exports 40% of its dairy production. Economist Jean-Marc Chaumet from the Cniel has examined how these shifting global dynamics are affecting the industry. He highlighted that around 17% of the value of French dairy exports is now vulnerable to "geopolitical or geo-economic problems." Chaumet discussed these concerns during a conference titled Milk in the crucible of geopolitics on September 16 at the Space in Rennes. He described an unstable international environment shaped by a new approach to trade and rising tensions between major powers. Since the 2007-2008 economic crisis, the pace of international trade has slowed, and trade barriers have grown, especially with the Sino-American rivalry that began during Donald Trump's first term as U.S. president. Major powers such as the United States and China have increasingly bypassed traditional trade rules using "non-tariff barriers, export controls, unilateral sanctions, and massive subsidies." Once seen as a path to prosperity, global interdependence is now viewed as a source of risk and vulnerability. Agriculture, particularly dairy, is among the first sectors affected, with milk now considered a strategic resource due to its reliance on global supply chains for inputs like fertilizers, animal feed, and equipment. France, a leading dairy exporter, is finding itself on the receiving end of these geopolitical shifts, with its exports subject to the decisions of its customers. In 2024-2025, China retaliated against the European Union's investigation into Chinese electric vehicles by imposing restrictions on pork, cognac, and European dairy products. This marks a reversal in the use of the "food weapon," which was previously a tool used by exporters. Now, importers are wielding it by limiting access to their markets, as seen in Russia's embargo in 2014 and China's recent restrictions on Western imports. Several non-EU markets are becoming increasingly unstable, with China aiming to achieve self-sufficiency in milk. French exports of cream to China have dropped by a third, and Algeria, once the fourth-largest non-EU buyer of French dairy, has seen a significant decline in dairy imports. The war in the Middle East has also impacted French dairy sales, with no certainty that they will return to pre-conflict levels. The global dairy market is becoming more competitive, with the United States showing "very aggressive" export behavior. Between 2015 and 2024, the U.S. share of the global dairy trade rose from 12% to 15%, while France's share fell from 10% to 8%. The U.S. has signed agreements with countries in Asia and Latin America that allow American cheeses to be sold under European designations, challenging EU efforts to protect these names. The Cniel is currently exploring strategies for the French dairy sector, including reducing reliance on major markets like China, leveraging secure European agreements, exploring new growing markets, and focusing more on the European market. Chaumet emphasizes that the dairy trade is becoming "less a simple price arbitration and more and more a trade managed by politics," with new factors such as market access, respect for international rules, and risk management increasingly influencing exports.