Gulf nations have found ways to keep oil flowing despite the ongoing conflict involving Iran, but the costs of these efforts are growing. At the start of the war, there were fears that Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a vital waterway through which about 15 million barrels of oil pass daily — would cause oil prices to soar, triggering a global economic crisis. However, seven months into the conflict, oil prices have risen but not to the extreme levels initially predicted. Analysts say global oil supply remains largely sufficient to meet current needs, though the higher prices are creating political challenges for leaders like U.S. President Donald Trump. This resilience is largely due to quick actions by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers, who tapped into alternative routes and unused pipeline capacity to bypass the blockage. When Iran and its allies targeted these new routes, the Gulf oil exporters and U.S. military found further alternatives in a complex, often secretive game of countermeasures. With oil prices now hovering around $100 per barrel — higher than before the war but not as dire as feared — Iran's leverage has weakened, while a U.S. naval presence and tightened sanctions are straining Iran's economy. However, these alternative routes are costly and may not be sustainable in the long term. The use of existing commercial oil reserves, especially by China, has also helped maintain price stability, but this cannot continue indefinitely. Iran could still gain an advantage if it continues targeting key oil infrastructure. In response to Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia used its East-West pipeline to transport oil to its Red Sea port of Yanbu. From there, tankers moved through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Asia. The United Arab Emirates also utilized a pipeline across Oman to Fujairah, a route that bypasses the strait. These pipelines had unused capacity that helped maintain oil exports during the early stages of the war. In May, some ship operators began using a U.S.-supervised route near Oman, despite Iranian threats, to move oil through the strait. These ships operated at night with electronic systems disabled, unloading onto tankers waiting outside the strait. Oil shipments from Kuwait, Iraq, and the UAE also began to increase again. However, in July, Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen disrupted the Yanbu pipeline by declaring a blockade on Saudi oil shipments, threatening the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. In response, Saudi Arabia redirected Asia-bound oil shipments through the Suez Canal or via a pipeline across Egypt, resulting in a long detour around Africa to reach Asia. More recently, the East-West pipeline was attacked and forced to shut down, prompting Saudi Arabia to shift to a U.S.-protected route through the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, six supertankers loaded 12 million barrels of oil at Saudi terminals on the Persian Gulf, according to shipping data company Kpler. U.S. officials have emphasized the role of these alternative routes in maintaining energy flow while increasing pressure on Iran. Adm. Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, said U.S. forces had assisted over 2,000 commercial ship transits and transported more than 1 billion barrels of oil from Gulf partner nations in recent months. Analysts estimate that an average of 6 million barrels per day or more have passed through the Strait of Hormuz on the dark shuttle route, about 40% or more of prewar flows. Despite these workarounds, about 7 million barrels per day of the prewar flow remain missing. However, about 3.5 million barrels per day are being drawn down from global oil reserves, and demand has decreased by about 5 million barrels per day due to higher prices and slower economic growth. Additional supply from other sources like the U.S. helps balance the market. Rystad Energy analyst Rahul Choudhary noted that the market is tightly balanced, which is why oil prices have not reached the $140 to $150 range that could have been expected with a larger supply deficit. Rystad predicts oil prices to fall to $80 to $82 per barrel in 2024 if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. However, these workarounds are both time-consuming and expensive. Shipping oil through the Suez Canal instead of the Red Sea can add a month to the journey. The Hormuz shuttle trade involves costly tankers waiting at least a day and a half in the Gulf of Oman for ship-to-ship transfers. Charter rates for these tankers have surged, with spot rates reaching $1 million per day on Sept. 11, equivalent to about $26 per barrel. Markets are bracing for further disruptions, as the attack on the East-West pipeline has shown that pipelines can be vulnerable. If Iran targets the U.S. route through the Strait of Hormuz or areas near the Omani coast, the workaround would require even more time and expense.