Facing the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, China's actions have played a notable role in stabilizing global oil prices, according to energy experts. The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for oil from the Gulf, has disrupted supply for seven months. Despite these disruptions, oil prices have not surged as dramatically as some had feared. On September 17, the price of a barrel of Brent crude fell to $99.47, below the $100 mark for the first time since the conflict began. This is still significantly higher than the $72.48 recorded just before the first strikes in February, but much lower than the $180 or $200 that some analysts had predicted as a worst-case scenario.
China, the world's largest oil importer, has played a key role in this stabilization. In 2023, nearly 74% of China's oil supply came from abroad, with almost 40% sourced from the Middle East, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). However, during the early months of the conflict, China significantly reduced its oil imports. From March to August, imports fell by 23% compared to the same period in the previous year, according to customs data. This decline was notable, with oil imports in June dropping to seven million barrels per day, down from 12 million the previous year. Experts suggest that China's vast strategic oil reserves—amounting to 1.4 billion barrels by the end of 2025—allowed it to manage this reduction without major disruptions at home.
China's strategy was also marked by a deliberate effort to maintain internal stability. Refineries reduced operations, and the government paused exports of refined products to protect domestic supplies. As a result, oil prices in China rose, but not as sharply as those abroad. Additionally, higher fuel prices encouraged more use of public transport and electric vehicles. The number of electric cars on Chinese roads increased by 33% compared to the previous year, according to the Carbon Brief. This shift, along with a 9% decline in overall oil consumption, helped reduce demand and stabilize prices.
China's response to the crisis reflects a long-term energy strategy that includes building strategic reserves, diversifying energy sources, and promoting electrification. The country has been developing its refining industry and securing oil supplies from sanctioned countries like Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. In recent years, it has also increased its crude oil reserves by an average of 1.1 million barrels per day. These efforts have helped China manage the risks of oil dependency. While coal still accounts for the majority of China's energy use, the country is also investing heavily in renewables and electric vehicles, which may further reduce its reliance on oil in the future.
China's Reduced Oil Imports May Have Helped Stabilize Global Prices Amid Middle East Crisis
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