Yemen's historical divisions resurface

Yemen, a country that has been in turmoil since the fall of its long-time leader Ali Abdallah Saleh in 2012, remains deeply divided. The conflict, which began in 2015 with a Saudi-led coalition fighting against the Houthi rebels, has revived ancient tensions between the north and south of the country. These divisions, rooted in history and geography, have grown stronger as power structures have collapsed and regional rivalries have intensified.

Historical roots of north-south divide

Yemen’s north, centered around the capital Sanaa, has long been dominated by Zaidi Shia religious traditions and a centralized political system. In contrast, the south, with its major port city of Aden, has a more urban and maritime history, shaped by British colonial rule and a brief Marxist regime. These differences have created a persistent sense of regional identity, with the south often feeling overshadowed by the north’s political and religious influence.

The Houthi rise and the fragmented government

Since capturing Sanaa in 2014, the Houthi group, also known as Ansar Allah, has been consolidating power in the north, creating a de facto autonomous region. Meanwhile, the internationally recognized government, known as the Presidential Council, remains weak and fragmented. The south, meanwhile, has been working to reassert its identity, with the Southern Transitional Council (STS) emerging as a key player seeking greater autonomy or even independence.

Southern ambitions and regional support

The south has been trying to strengthen its position by securing oil resources, controlling trade routes, and resisting groups like Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. The STS, backed by the United Arab Emirates, has pushed for more independence, even launching military offensives in 2025. However, internal divisions and a loss of key regional support have weakened the southern movement, leading to a shift in focus toward local power struggles over control of Aden and the oil-rich east.

Yemen’s uncertain future

Despite efforts to create a federal system that could ease tensions, the country remains in a state of fragmentation. The Houthi group in the north and the weakened southern separatists are locked in a struggle for control, with no clear path toward reunification or full independence. Regional powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE continue to exert influence, but the lack of trust between northern and southern leaders, combined with the Houthi stronghold in the northwest, suggests that Yemen’s future will remain divided for the foreseeable future.