West Africa continues to be the world's primary supplier of shea butter, a product derived from the nuts of the shea tree, which is used in cosmetics, food, and other industries. The 2026 shea butter campaign is being closely observed by traders and market participants, as the region faces a mix of uncertainty and regulatory changes. While the season has already started in countries like Benin, Mali, and Côte d'Ivoire, the outlook for the shea belt remains uncertain due to export restrictions and fluctuating market conditions influenced by national trade policies. Shea-producing countries in West Africa share similar environmental conditions that support shea butter production, but their approaches to processing and capturing added value differ. Each country aims to keep more raw material for local processing, using various methods and progressing at different speeds. For instance, Burkina Faso lifted a shea nut export ban in May 2024 but still requires exporters with special permission to sell 25% of their volumes to local processing units and imposes a 200 FCFA per kilogram tax on exported almonds. In contrast, Mali, Nigeria, and Côte d'Ivoire have maintained total export bans to ensure raw materials are reserved for internal processing. Benin has adopted a more moderate strategy, allowing exports with high taxes, while Togo permits exports with prior authorization and a 100 FCFA/kg tax, though its regulations were still being finalized at the start of the campaign. Ghana has announced plans to gradually restrict raw nut exports since July 2025, although these restrictions are not yet in effect. These differing industrial policies are influencing market dynamics, affecting prices and demand. According to the N'kalô market information service, almond prices in Ghana ranged between 575 and 675 FCFA/kg, while in Nigeria, they were between 280 and 320 FCFA/kg. Prices in Benin, Burkina Faso, and Togo were also within similar ranges. In Nigeria, the export ban has led to a drop in demand, excess stock from the previous campaign, and the departure of major exporters, causing almond prices to fall from a high of 340 FCFA/kg. Meanwhile, Ghana remains open to international buyers, with large stockpiles and forward contracts supporting purchases. Operators are navigating a complex environment where export authorizations and restrictions can change rapidly, often without clear communication. Informal cross-border trade has also emerged, making it challenging to predict price movements. The situation is expected to remain unpredictable, with prices fluctuating significantly between countries. "We are again in a campaign that does not resemble what the market knew before 2024," notes Anaïs Chotard, an analyst at N'kalô. Despite these challenges, the shea processing industry has been striving to keep pace over the past two years. In Nigeria, processing units are currently operating at a low level, while Côte d'Ivoire is installing a third processing plant, indicating strong local demand. In Benin, industrial and semi-industrial units continue to purchase shea nuts to secure the volumes needed for their operations. "The dynamic is underway, but we are not yet in a satisfactory situation," Chotard adds, noting that while shea butter exports from the region are expected to reach around 85,000 tonnes in 2025, processing capacities are likely much higher, suggesting underutilization. The international shea butter market remains upwardly oriented, with increasing exports to Europe and India, partly replacing almond exports. The demand for almonds remains strong, but there is also an emerging trend of new supplier countries entering the market. This could indicate a diversification of supply sources by manufacturers aiming to reduce reliance on traditional producers affected by export restrictions. However, this trend will need to be confirmed in the coming months.