Cattle numbers fall in Europe

European cattle stocks are declining, leading to increased live cattle exchanges between member countries. This trend has reduced the supply of cattle, which has supported beef prices in Europe but also increased interdependence among markets, exposing the sector to various risks.

France loses significant cattle numbers

Over the last ten years, France has lost 16% of its breeding herd, with a notable decrease in both dairy and meat cattle. Between 2015 and 2025, the country lost 813,000 meat calves and 555,000 dairy calves, reducing the volume available for export.

Live animal exchanges grow despite fewer cattle

Live animal exchanges have increased by 8% over the past decade, even as the French cattle herd shrinks. Historical buyers are now sourcing from other markets, with Ireland expanding exports to Italy, Spain, and Greece, while Poland focuses on fattening animals from the Baltic countries.

Fattening industry faces shortages

The fattening industry is struggling with a shortage of young cattle, and no complete solution has been found yet. Spain and Romania are also developing exchanges with third countries, but this has not fully resolved the problem of supply.

Price trends and market challenges

The price of French young cattle has dropped significantly, partly due to a decline in Italian young cattle prices. Alessandro De Rocco, president of Intercarne Italia, suggests that educating consumers about the true value of meat could help. However, the Spanish market faces challenges in absorbing all fattened cattle, with Morocco being a key customer.

Health risks threaten exchanges

Health risks are a major concern in live animal exchanges, especially after the closure of the Algerian market in 2023, which led to a 30-cent loss in market value over 10 weeks. The DNC crisis also affected intra-European exchanges, with dairy calf prices dropping by 135 euros per head in three weeks.

Transport regulations complicate trade

Proposed transport regulations in Brussels could reshape the sector. Greece, which imports between 100,000 and 400,000 cattle for fattening, faces challenges due to long-distance transport rules, including mandatory 24-hour stops in Italy, which can increase stress and microbial risks for the cattle.

Beef consumption and imports

European beef consumption has declined by 266,000 téc (carcass equivalent tons) over ten years, with production also showing a decline of 380,000 téc. Imports from third countries have increased, with Mercosur representing 62% of the European Union's beef imports. However, the reshaping of exchanges has its limits, as they redistribute volumes without fully compensating for the decrease in herds.