Congressional outcome uncertain

The outcome of the U.S. mid-term elections has significant implications for U.S. foreign policy, particularly regarding relations with Russia and Ukraine. While the election results may shift power between the two major political parties, they do not guarantee a more predictable or unified stance on international issues.

Trump's Russia policy

Before the election, Donald Trump reached an agreement to import Russian diesel to lower fuel prices, a move that contrasts with Europe's strict stance on Russian energy. This decision highlights potential divergences in how the U.S. and Europe approach sanctions and relations with Russia.

EU sanctions against Russia

On October 12, the European Union adopted its largest package of sanctions against the Russian military-industrial complex, targeting 1,569 individuals and entities. This move was followed four days later by Trump suspending new U.S. sanctions against Russia, signaling a potential shift in American policy.

Impact on U.S.-Europe relations

The contrasting approaches to Russia raise concerns for both Ukraine and European capitals. The uncertainty surrounding U.S. commitments to pressure Russia could affect the reliability of the transatlantic alliance, especially in areas like security and trade. The mid-term results may not immediately resolve these tensions.

Possible congressional scenarios

Three main scenarios could emerge from the mid-term elections: a Republican majority in both chambers, a Democratic majority in both chambers, or a split between the two parties. Each scenario would influence the balance of power between Congress and the executive branch, shaping domestic and foreign policy.

Congressional checks on Trump

A Democratic majority in the House of Representatives could limit Trump's legislative agenda, investigate his decisions, and influence public spending. A Democratic Senate would add more leverage in appointments, but Trump would still retain his veto power, allowing him to bypass Congress on certain issues.

Trump's foreign policy focus

A domestic political setback may not reduce Trump's influence abroad. If his legislative goals are blocked, he could focus more on international agreements and foreign policy to build his legacy. Europeans must prepare for a president who may take bold actions even with limited domestic authority.

Ukraine and U.S. support

If Republicans retain control of Congress, American support for Ukraine could depend on the willingness of lawmakers to resist Trump's pro-Russia inclinations. A Democratic House could provide more consistent support for Ukraine but would still need Senate and presidential approval for any aid or military assistance.

Limitations of congressional power

Even if Democrats control both chambers, they cannot directly negotiate with Trump or ensure that his administration follows their legislative decisions. Trump can use executive orders to bypass Congress, as seen in his recent suspension of sanctions against Russia.

European reliance on U.S. technology

Recent restrictions on Ukrainian satellite connectivity, attributed to SpaceX and the U.S. military, highlight Europe's dependence on American technology. These limitations have disrupted military operations, revealing vulnerabilities that Europe must address independently.

Defense spending and independence

Europe must increase its defense spending but cannot rely solely on U.S. support. Essential communication and military capabilities remain subject to decisions in Washington, emphasizing the need for European self-reliance in critical infrastructure and technology.

U.S.-Iran tensions

The ongoing conflict with Iran adds another layer of uncertainty for Europe, which faces economic consequences through energy markets and maritime transport. However, Europe has limited influence over U.S. decisions, underscoring the need for greater strategic autonomy.

Congress and trade policies

While a Democratic Congress may increase predictability in trade, it cannot automatically end existing disputes. Tariffs remain under presidential control, and a change in majority does not eliminate the executive's power to set them.

Balancing U.S. and European interests

European companies may see a Democratic Congress as a sign of more predictable trade policies, but they should not assume an end to disputes. The convergence of American and European interests in areas like technology and China remains uncertain.

Need for European unity

Europe must strengthen its relations with the U.S. while negotiating as a unified entity. Individual governments seeking exemptions risk weakening the EU's collective bargaining power. The mid-term elections are important, but they do not eliminate the need for European action and preparation.