Macron faces diplomatic hurdles

Emmanuel Macron has encountered several diplomatic challenges, including the postponement of Palestinian legislative elections and a reversal by Donald Trump on Ukraine policy, complicating his final months in office amid national crises.

Macron urges support for Ukraine

Macron urged Europeans to provide "Ukraine all the necessary means to defend itself," during a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and participation in an European summit. However, he has refrained from openly criticizing Trump.

U.S.-European alignment questioned

Macron previously highlighted a "reconvergence" between the United States and Europeans in support of Kyiv at the G7 summit in June, following months of American hesitation. This effort was described as a "very profound change" and the result of diplomatic work aimed at shifting blame from Zelensky to Russian President Vladimir Putin after an earlier incident in the Oval Office.

Recent developments challenge unity

Recent developments have called this repositioning into question, with Zelensky admitting to feeling betrayed after a surprise agreement between Washington and Moscow for the mass purchase of Russian diesel, contradicting sanctions in place for over four years.

Expert views on Trump's influence

Liana Fix, a researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations, noted that "any calm with Trump lasts only a few weeks or months," before returning to positions that favor Russian interests. European leaders "can hardly do more than try to resist," she said, especially as some countries, notably France and Germany, lack the capacity to push back against American initiatives due to internal challenges.

Macron's domestic struggles

Macron is currently facing a record level of unpopularity due to a series of crises, including student protests, fuel price increases, and financial instability. France has decided to adopt a cautious approach in response to American criticism of European unity, with Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot stating that Europe no longer assumes "the bulk of the support for Ukraine and the pressure on Russia."

France's role in Ukraine

He noted that two-thirds of the intelligence provided to Ukraine is currently supplied by Europeans, particularly France. On the French side, efforts are being made to minimize tensions with Trump, with a close associate of Macron suggesting a wait-and-see approach until the U.S. mid-term elections in early November.

Trump's policies and their impact

The recent actions of Trump, including reducing diesel prices to address voter dissatisfaction, may have influenced his current positions, with a potential defeat in Congress possibly limiting his ability to act. The conflict with Iran, a major contributor to rising fuel prices in France, also presents challenges.

Macron's Middle East engagement

Macron's G7 agreement to release strategic oil reserves aimed at lowering prices was welcomed by Washington, but his decision to send military assets to Saudi Arabia to protect a strategic oil site from Yemeni rebels has limited impact against the scale of the conflict.

Risks of Middle East involvement

Camille Lons of the European Council on Foreign Relations noted that while maintaining a credible power status in the Middle East is relevant, the risk of being drawn into the conflict increases with escalation, despite a defensive posture.

Palestinian elections delay

The postponement of Palestinian legislative elections, which Macron had presented as a key commitment following his recognition of the State of Palestine a year ago, further complicates his international influence. A Macronist figure observed that his ability to influence the international scene is gradually fading, with the end of his term appearing complicated.

Franco-German automotive pact

In Europe, Macron celebrated an agreement with Germany to ensure the future of the European automotive sector, but the ultimate test will be his ability to secure an "ambitious" EU budget before the presidential election. At the Brussels summit, the Franco-German negotiations remained blocked despite promises of progress.