1960 article predicts population explosion
In 1960, three researchers published an article in Science titled "End of the world: Friday, November 13, 2026." They argued that if global population growth continued as it had for the previous two millennia, it would eventually reach infinity, leading to overcrowding and societal collapse.Overpopulation fears in the 1960s
At the time, the world population was growing rapidly, especially in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. This led to widespread concerns about overpopulation, resource shortages, and potential conflicts, echoing earlier warnings by 18th-century economist Thomas Malthus.Human cooperation as a growth factor
The researchers believed humans were unique in the animal kingdom because of our ability to communicate and form coalitions. They argued that larger populations could lead to greater collaboration, which in turn would drive even faster population growth.Model matched historical data
The researchers analyzed 24 estimates of world population over the previous 2,000 years. Their model, which predicted accelerating growth, aligned closely with historical data. Their projections were even more accurate than those of many demographers during the 1970s and 1980s.Population growth slows by the 1990s
By the early 1990s, global population growth began to slow. The growth rate had already peaked in the early 1960s, and declining fertility rates started to contradict the researchers’ predictions, even though they had warned of overpopulation risks.Modern concerns shift to population decline
Today, the focus in many countries, such as Italy and Japan, is not on overpopulation but on population decline. Birth rates have fallen below replacement levels in many regions, leading to concerns about aging populations and economic challenges.
