1960 article predicts population infinity

In 1960, the scientific journal Science published an article titled "The End of the World: Friday, November 13, 2026," which proposed that the human population might grow indefinitely, eventually leading to self-destruction through overcrowding. The article was written by Heinz von Foerster, an Austrian-American professor and cybernetics expert, along with his students Patricia M. Mora and Lawrence W. Amiot.

Population growth model challenged norms

The authors argued that human population growth could surpass exponential growth, accelerating endlessly due to increased collaboration and population density. They used 24 population estimates spanning 2,000 years to show that population growth had consistently outpaced predictions.

Equation sparks widespread attention

The article’s prediction that the population would approach infinity by 2026 caused immediate public and media interest. Time and the New York Times covered the topic, and the idea inspired the comic strip Pogo. Many viewed it as a satirical take on population concerns rather than a serious warning.

Equation used in policy and law

The "end of the world" equation appeared in academic textbooks and influenced policy discussions. It was cited in a 1963 Canadian parliamentary committee to justify pesticide use and in a 1971 U.S. Supreme Court case related to abortion. Its influence extended beyond demography into law and industry.

Population growth slows over time

The model’s predictions were remarkably accurate for decades, outperforming most demographers in the 1970s and 1980s. However, by 1993, population growth began to slow, aligning with the authors’ own recommendation to reduce the global birth rate. Today, the global birth rate is less than half of what it was in 1960.

Legacy of scientific drama

The article remains a notable example of how scientific research can be combined with dramatic presentation. While the prediction of an apocalyptic 2026 did not come true, the paper’s impact was significant. November 13, 2026, is now expected to be an ordinary day, not a doomsday.