Since 2021, the global economy has been navigating a complex recovery from the pandemic, compounded by logistical challenges and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. These factors caused sharp increases in energy and agricultural raw material prices. Many consumers expected these price drops to quickly lead to lower grocery bills, but the decline has been slower than anticipated. In France, energy prices surged by 23.1% in 2022, significantly higher than the 6.8% increase in food prices. However, by 2023, this trend reversed: energy prices rose more slowly, at 5.6%, while food prices increased more sharply, at 11.8%. It wasn't until 2024 that both categories saw similar, modest growth rates (2.3% for energy and 1.4% for food). In 2025, energy prices dropped by 5.6%, but food prices still climbed, albeit more modestly, by 1.2%. The delay in the impact of falling energy prices on food costs is due to the complex and lengthy process through which these changes travel through the food supply chain. Energy is a critical component in food production, from farming to processing and transportation. According to the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), a 1% rise in energy costs typically results in a 0.28% increase in food production costs. However, how much of this cost is passed on to consumers depends on the product and the stage of the supply chain. Between rising gas prices and the price of a bag of pasta, several steps occur: farmers buy fertilizers and fuel, manufacturers renegotiate energy contracts, and then there is processing, storage, transport, and finally, negotiations with retailers. Each of these steps introduces a delay and can either amplify or reduce the initial cost shock. Three factors contribute to the delayed impact of falling costs. First, prices are often rigid in the short term, meaning companies may continue to face high costs even after prices have dropped. Second, the transmission of cost changes is spread out over time, with adjustments taking up to five quarters after products reach retailers. Third, not all costs decrease at the same time—while one input might become cheaper, others like wages, rent, or insurance might remain high. It’s important to distinguish between disinflation and deflation. Disinflation means a slowdown in the rate of price increases, while deflation refers to a general decline in prices. Even during a deflationary period, prices may not return to pre-crisis levels. Grocery bills often remain higher than before, even after the initial shocks have passed. While a slowdown in inflation is a positive development, it does not automatically restore lost purchasing power. Prices can stop rising quickly but remain permanently above their pre-crisis levels.