The global oil market is facing significant strain as the three major producers—the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia—struggle to boost production in the face of rising prices, geopolitical tensions, and sanctions. This has accelerated the shift toward alternative energy sources, with countries like Europe now viewing energy efficiency, electrification, and diversification as essential security strategies, not just climate goals. The summer of 2026 tested the resilience of global oil supply, as none of the three main producers could act as a buffer against disruptions. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the amount of crude and liquids passing through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to 5 million barrels per day (Mb/d) in the second quarter of 2026, down from 21 Mb/d at the end of 2025. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that global oil stocks have fallen below 8 billion barrels, a decline of over 400 million since February. Global liquid supply is expected to reach 101 Mb/d in 2026, compared to 106 Mb/d in 2025, with a potential rebound to 109 Mb/d in 2027 if the strait reopens. If this happens, Brent crude, which has averaged around $90 this year, could fall back to $70. The United States is still the world's largest oil producer, having reached a record 13.6 Mb/d of crude in 2025. However, maintaining this level of output depends on a fragile system. Shale wells lose around 70% of their production in the first year, compared to about 15% per year for traditional oil fields. As a result, most drilling is focused on replacing lost production rather than increasing output. Investment budgets for major American oil companies are set to decrease by about 5% in 2026, and the number of active drilling rigs in the Permian Basin has remained stable despite crude prices exceeding $100. This suggests that the U.S. shale industry is no longer as sensitive to price changes as it was in the 2010s. Saudi Arabia, despite having a sustainable production capacity estimated by the IEA at 12 Mb/d, produced only 8 Mb/d in July 2026, far below the OPEC+ quota of 10.5 Mb/d for September. The West pipeline, which bypasses Hormuz toward the Red Sea, is operating at its maximum capacity of 7 Mb/d, increasing the flow through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from 5 to 8 Mb/d. However, this route is threatened by the blockade of the Houthis, allies of Iran, and alternative routes via Suez or the Sumed pipeline are slower, more expensive, and have limited capacity. Saudi Arabia’s budget equilibrium price is around $86, and the first-quarter deficit of 125 billion riyals (about 29 billion euros) consumed three quarters of the annual target. Aramco has maintained a base dividend of $22 billion per quarter, increasing its reliance on debt. Russia is facing challenges on multiple fronts: productive capacity, refining infrastructure, and export markets. The IEA estimates its current sustainable capacity at 9.5 Mb/d, far below historical levels. Refining capacity has dropped to 3.6 Mb/d in July, the lowest since May 2002, due to drone strikes by Ukrainian forces. Russian exports are increasingly dependent on buyers in Asia, with China and India accounting for the majority of maritime exports. The Center for Energy and Clean Air estimates the discount of the Urals at about $20 per barrel, or nearly 25%. More than half of the crude transported by sea is done by a "ghost fleet" whose costs erode net revenue. The energy transition is beginning to influence the oil market, with the electrification of road transport reducing demand by about 1.7 Mb/d in 2025. The IEA estimates that electric vehicles will account for around 30% of new car sales in 2026, with this proportion reaching nearly 60% in China. However, the decline in oil demand in 2026 is primarily due to high prices and logistical disruptions, not just technological substitution. The IEA forecasts a rebound in demand of +2.7 Mb/d in 2027, indicating that the decline is not necessarily a sign of long-term demand destruction. The crisis highlights the fragility of oil power, which is not just about accessible reserves but also includes patient capital, safe evacuation routes, and buyers who do not dictate their conditions. Each of the three major producers has seen one of these pillars collapse: capital for the United States, logistics for Saudi Arabia, and technology and markets for Russia. The energy transition is modifying the terms of the problem, but it is not yet sufficient to fully replace oil in the global economy.