Since the end of February, tensions between the United States and Iran have drawn global attention to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which about 20 percent of the world's traded oil passes. This geopolitical situation has had ripple effects on global markets, with the price of Brent crude oil rising from around $60 per barrel in the autumn of 2025 to nearly $126 in March. By early October, the price had stabilized around $100, but the fluctuations have had significant economic consequences, particularly in Africa. The African Development Bank (AfDB) released its 2026 Economic Outlook in May, predicting a continent-wide growth rate of 4.2 percent, slightly lower than the 4.4 percent recorded in 2025. While this small decline may not seem catastrophic, it highlights the uneven impact of the global oil price shock across the continent. East Africa, a region heavily reliant on imported energy, is expected to see its growth rate drop from 6.6 percent to 5.9 percent. In contrast, Central Africa is projected to grow slightly, driven by its hydrocarbon exports. Meanwhile, North Africa faces challenges from rising energy costs and a decline in tourism from the Gulf region. The rising cost of oil has real economic consequences. Higher diesel prices increase the cost of transportation and fertilizers, which in turn affects agricultural production and household budgets. Governments are also under pressure to protect low-income households, further straining public finances. The AfDB predicts an average inflation rate of 10.4 percent for the continent this year, a significant drop from the 13.7 percent recorded in 2025. However, the budget gaps are still staggering. For example, Angola based its 2026 budget on an oil price of $61 per barrel, while Nigeria used $64.85. Each additional dollar per barrel represents unexpected revenue that many governments are struggling to manage effectively. Nigeria presents an interesting case. For years, the country imported most of its gasoline, making it vulnerable to rising oil prices. However, the completion of the Dangote refinery has changed this dynamic. In March, the refinery covered about 92 percent of Nigeria's gasoline needs and now exports to West Africa. This shift has led to a trade surplus in the second quarter of 2026, turning what was once a financial burden into a source of revenue. Despite this, Nigeria still faces challenges in managing its oil surplus. The country produces about 1.6 million barrels per day, exceeding the 1.84 million expected in the budget. While the surplus is estimated at around 500 billion naira since February, the government's reserves show little sign of this windfall. The ability to capture and retain these revenues remains a critical issue, revealing deeper structural challenges in resource management across the continent.