IEA updates on energy crisis

One month after delaying a resolution to the crisis in oil markets, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has given an update on the global energy situation, which continues to be heavily affected by disruptions from the conflict in the Middle East. The IEA's executive director, Fatih Birol, noted that while oil flows from the region are starting to recover, this improvement is not enough to restore market balance to what it was before the war began in the Middle East.

Oil exports rise but refining capacity lags

In September, crude oil exports from the Gulf reached 13.9 million barrels per day, which is more than 75 percent of their pre-war level, according to the IEA. However, nearly 2 million barrels per day of refining capacity remain shut down in the region, which is limiting the return to normal market conditions.

Diesel supply faces growing pressure

The main point of tension is now on refined products, particularly diesel. World production of this essential petroleum product, which is crucial for freight transport, has dropped by 1.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the previous year, and by 1.7 million barrels in the third quarter, according to the IEA. Diesel exports from the Middle East and Asia have also decreased, further tightening the available supply.

Winter demand adds to diesel strain

This pressure occurs as seasonal fuel demand is expected to increase with the onset of winter in the Northern Hemisphere. Birol expects the diesel markets to remain particularly tense, as several refineries must also carry out maintenance operations at the same time, adding to the supply challenges.

Oil prices rise amid ongoing tensions

The prices reflect this tension. Brent, the international benchmark for the market, reached an average of $114 per barrel in September, which is $23 more than in August, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The agency forecasts an average of $105 for the fourth quarter, amid ongoing disruptions of flows in the Middle East.

Higher prices risk trade deficits in Africa

Birol, however, estimates that a crude oil price close to $120 poses risks for countries facing larger trade deficits. The issue is particularly sensitive in Africa, where, according to a study published by the African Development Bank (AfDB) last April, 43 of the 54 countries on the continent are net importers of crude oil and petroleum products.

Energy security becomes top priority

For Birol, this situation requires governments and companies to prioritize energy security. "Energy security must become the top priority for governments and companies," said the official during his intervention. This priority is already evident in investment choices, notably through the growing interest in nuclear energy, with approximately 90 gigawatts of capacity currently under construction worldwide, the highest level in four decades, according to Birol.