American crude oil stocks dropped by 3.2 million barrels in the week ending October 2, 2026, much more than the market expected. Analysts had predicted a rise of 1.7 million barrels, but instead, supplies fell sharply. This unexpected decline has caused oil prices to rise, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) now forecasting a price of $105 per barrel for Brent crude in the fourth quarter of 2026, up by $14 from the previous month. The EIA also predicts an average price of $84 per barrel for 2027, $10 higher than its earlier estimate. U.S. crude oil stocks, excluding the government’s emergency reserve, were at 424.1 million barrels, just 1% above the five-year average. However, this number masks a concerning trend. Although U.S. refineries are operating at 92.7% of their capacity, the drop in oil stocks indicates that production is not keeping pace with demand. Distillate stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, are 12% below the five-year average. On the U.S. East Coast, where heating oil is commonly used, reserves are 32% below the seasonal average for September. The EIA expects this shortage to continue through the winter, with stocks still about 20% below the average for the years 2021 to 2025. The EIA has highlighted that the weakness in U.S. distillate stocks is likely to continue, with East Coast inventories 32% below the seasonal average in September. These shortages are expected to persist through the winter, with stocks remaining about 20% below the 2021-2025 average. This shortage initially affects the United States but has ripple effects on global diesel markets, which are essential for road transport and, therefore, for food prices. The increased cost of diesel is not only felt by drivers and households using heating oil but also by industries that rely heavily on diesel, such as delivery trucks, agricultural machinery, and commercial ships. Diesel is a vital component of the economy, and its rising price affects the entire supply chain. Carriers increase their costs, which are then passed on to distributors and ultimately to consumers, leading to higher prices for food and other goods. Economists are watching for signs of a potential economic slowdown, as high energy prices reduce household spending power and limit discretionary purchases. Companies facing higher production costs may slow their investments, which could lead to a situation known as stagflation, where economic stagnation and high inflation occur together. Since February 28, 2026, the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has disrupted oil flows from the Persian Gulf, a region that previously supplied 20% of the world's oil. In September, attacks on the Saudi East-West pipeline and several pumping stations further heightened tensions. Although production interruptions have reached their lowest level since the conflict began, the EIA forecasts that "oil flows from the Middle East will remain limited during the fourth quarter." This has affected global energy markets and created uncertainty. France imports about 60% of its crude oil, a significant portion of which comes from the Middle East through contracts with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Disruptions in this region have led to supply challenges in Europe. French refineries are seeking alternative suppliers, such as Norway, the United States, and West Africa, but these options come with higher freight and logistics costs. To help stabilize the market, the International Energy Agency has announced plans to release more oil from strategic reserves, focusing on diesel. The G7 also discussed additional supply options during its meeting on October 2. While these measures aim to ease price pressures, their success depends on how large and coordinated they are. For now, energy markets remain tense, and French households can expect high energy bills to continue through the end of the year.