Diesel prices rise sharply

Diesel prices are increasing significantly, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), which attributes this trend to ongoing supply issues in the petroleum market.

Supply recovery expected by 2027

The IEA suggests that the diesel shortage may continue until 2027, depending on a global recovery in refining activities. This would require a significant increase in the production of refined petroleum products.

Supply tensions persist into 2027

The agency warns that supply tensions for diesel could last until 2027 due to unusually low stock levels, which have been exacerbated by restricted production as winter demand approaches.

Diesel refining margins reach record levels

Diesel refining margins, which reflect the premium of diesel over crude oil, hit a record high of nearly $95 (€84.81) per barrel in September, indicating strong demand and limited supply.

Supply disruptions impact global stocks

The IEA notes that prolonged supply disruptions have led to unplanned reductions in diesel stocks before the autumn refinery maintenance period and the winter demand peak, further straining the market.

Refining recovery not enough to offset deficit

While the IEA predicts a recovery in global refining activities by the end of the year, this is expected to fall short of compensating for the accumulated diesel deficit in 2026.

Global oil surplus expected in 2027

The agency forecasts a return to a global oil surplus in 2027, with oil supply decreasing by 5.8 million barrels per day this year before increasing by 7.7 million barrels per day in 2027.

Strategic oil reserves released to moderate prices

IEA members are working together to release 100 million barrels of oil and diesel from strategic reserves in an effort to reduce prices, amid rising political and economic pressures.

Diesel used widely in key sectors

Diesel is a crucial fuel for various industries, including agriculture, manufacturing, and the automotive sector, making its price fluctuations impactful on the broader economy.

Middle East and Russia lose diesel exports

Losses in diesel exports from the Middle East and Russia reached 1.3 million barrels per day in September, according to the IEA, highlighting the global nature of the supply problem.

Diesel demand decline expected in 2026

Total global oil demand is projected to fall by 2.6 million barrels per day in 2026, with 25% of this decline attributed to reduced diesel demand.

High diesel prices affect economies

The IEA explains that record diesel prices have already had widespread economic impacts, increasing the cost of goods, affecting real incomes, and contributing to inflation.

U.S. and Russia agree to lift sanctions

On October 9, the United States and Russia announced an agreement to lift sanctions on Russian diesel exports, allowing the delivery of 3 million tons of diesel, according to Donald Trump, which could lead to a price drop.

Global oil supply expected to rebound in 2027

The IEA predicts that global oil supply will decrease this year but is expected to rebound in 2027, leading to a surplus that could stabilize the market.