Last week, the Atlantic hurricane season passed its traditional peak—around September 10—without any tropical wave forming, let alone a storm or hurricane. This is unusual because this time of year typically sees the highest sea surface temperatures in the tropics, which, combined with a favorable atmosphere, usually leads to the formation of tropical systems. However, this year, the main region where most tropical systems develop is being affected by Saharan dust and wind shear, which can disrupt storm formation. The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring a single disturbance in the Atlantic, but it gives this system nearly zero percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm in the next two days, and the likelihood of it ever becoming a hurricane is very low.
The Atlantic hurricane season has been tracked since 1944, when the United States began using aircraft to monitor the Atlantic basin, which includes the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and the northern Atlantic Ocean. From 1944 onward, a hurricane had formed every year by September 11. The most recent hurricanes to form on this date were Gustav in 2002 and Humberto in 2013. However, official records of Atlantic hurricanes begin in 1851, though earlier records are less reliable. Before the 1850s, tracking hurricanes at sea relied on reports from ships, which means some storms were likely missed.
Even when considering the full record from 1851, every year has at least one Atlantic hurricane recorded. However, in 1941, the first hurricane of the season did not form until September 17, which is the latest first hurricane date on record. This means that even under less ideal conditions, the Atlantic has always produced at least one hurricane by late September. This year, however, the absence of any system forming by the traditional peak highlights the unusual atmospheric conditions affecting the region.
While the lack of a hurricane this early in the season is notable, it is not unheard of. Historical records show that the formation of hurricanes can vary greatly from year to year depending on a range of environmental factors. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the Atlantic for any developments, but current forecasts suggest that the season may be quieter than usual this year.
Atlantic Hurricane Season Passes Traditional Peak Without Storms
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