Forecasters are suggesting that the U.S. may not experience any Atlantic hurricanes this season, which could potentially break a century-old record. The last time no hurricanes formed during the Atlantic hurricane season was in 1914, and such an occurrence has not been recorded during the satellite era, according to AccuWeather. This unusual situation is linked to the El Niño climate pattern, which typically suppresses hurricane formation in the Atlantic by increasing wind shear—strong changes in wind speed or direction that can disrupt storm development. AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alex Sosnowski explained that the strong El Niño conditions and the wind shear it generates may prevent any hurricanes from forming for the rest of the season.
This week marks the peak of the hurricane season, yet only five tropical storms have formed since the season began on June 1. That number is far below the historical average of nine tropical storms and four hurricanes typically seen by mid-September, according to AccuWeather. The National Hurricane Center had initially predicted between 7 and 13 named storms and 2 to 6 hurricanes for the season. However, the ongoing strengthening of El Niño is expected to continue through the winter, further suppressing hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
If no hurricanes form by Friday, it would break the record for the latest date for the first Atlantic hurricane of the season. The previous record was set on September 11 in both 2002 and 2013. Despite this potential record, AccuWeather meteorologists still expect between 8 and 11 tropical storms and 3 to 4 hurricanes to form later in the season. AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok noted that any increase in tropical activity is likely to occur during late September to early October, with storms forming near the Bahamas or in the northeast Gulf of Mexico—areas that are not common for storm development this time of year.
The historically inactive Atlantic hurricane season coincides with an unusually active Pacific hurricane season, a pattern often seen during El Niño years. This month, three hurricanes formed off the California coast, moving westward. Hurricane Lowell affected Hawaii, resulting in two deaths, including a 90-year-old former kindergarten teacher. According to NASA, the last time three hurricanes formed simultaneously in the Eastern or Central Pacific was in 2015, another El Niño year. Increased hurricane activity is expected to continue in the Pacific region through the end of the year and into early 2027.
Potential Record for Hurricane-Free Atlantic Season Amid El Niño Conditions
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