TotalEnergies releases new energy outlook

TotalEnergies has published its eighth edition of the « TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2026 », presenting three scenarios for the evolution of the global energy system up to 2060. The report anticipates a peak in global oil demand between 2035 and 2040, followed by a decline.

Global energy demand and growth

The report outlines a paradoxical situation. On one hand, all energy sources still experience growth in their demand, including coal, oil and gas. More than half of the world's population still does not have sufficient access to energy to improve its development in terms of education, health and wealth creation. On the other hand, the growth rate of fossil energy and the greenhouse gas emissions associated with them is slowing, while global economic growth remains above 3%.

Investment in low-carbon energy

Investment flows testify to the depth of the ongoing transformation. Investments in low-carbon energy, including the electrification of demand, have almost doubled in ten years, going from 1,200 billion dollars in 2015 to 2,100 billion in 2025. China is emerging as the central actor, concentrating about 60% of new solar installations, 70% of wind turbines and 60% of electric vehicle sales.

Energy crises and transition acceleration

Recent crises, notably the one in the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 after the 2022 Ukrainian crisis, test the resilience of the energy system. They highlight the issues of supply security, which involve promoting local energy (renewables, biofuels) and diversifying fossil energy sources. Paradoxically, these crises can also serve as an accelerator for the transition.

Three future energy scenarios

TotalEnergies has updated its three scenarios for future energy systems, each based on distinct assumptions regarding the level of ambition of states in terms of climate and their ability to cooperate. The first, called « Trends », extends current trajectories. It incorporates the acceleration of the penetration of mature low-carbon technologies (solar, wind, electric vehicles, heat pumps), but takes into account infrastructure constraints, particularly electricity networks, as well as geopolitical tensions and cost-related barriers.

More ambitious energy scenario

The « Momentum » scenario is more ambitious. It assumes that OECD countries approach carbon neutrality by 2050 and China by 2060. It implies an increased electrification of final demand, the near abandonment of coal in OECD countries, a strong reduction in its use in China and only slight growth in India. Natural gas plays a role as a transition energy for electricity and industry, while new energy sources are deployed in non-electrifiable sectors.

Most ambitious climate scenario

The third scenario, « Rupture », is a normative scenario built from the objective of limiting temperature rise to less than 2 °C in accordance with the Paris Agreement. It would require significantly strengthened multilateral cooperation in favor of global decarbonization, with a much faster decrease in coal use in the electricity sector, a stable share of natural gas and a strong increase in low-carbon electricity production.

Oil demand peak and decline

One of the main revelations of the report concerns oil demand. During the presentation of the document, Aurélien Hamelle stated that TotalEnergies expects global oil demand to reach its peak between 2035 and 2040. He specified that this could then experience an accelerated decline if electric vehicle sales continued to grow at the current rate.

Regional energy strategies

The report highlights increasingly differentiated energy strategies according to regions. The United States, having become net exporters of gas in 2017 and petroleum products in 2020 thanks to shale energy, will continue to rely on its domestic fossil fuel resources. These will still account for about 60% of primary energy in 2060, compared to 80% today.

China's energy dominance

China continues its ambition to become an « electric power », consolidating its dominance over low-carbon technologies through its integration across all value chains. Even though it continues to increase the installed capacity of coal-fired power plants, the massive penetration of renewable electricity sources, the construction of a significant nuclear power plant park and the investment in flexibility of coal-fired power plants allow it to reduce the share of coal in primary energy from about 60% in 2025 to about 25% in 2060.

European energy challenges

The European Union is leading the way in reducing emissions by continuing to decarbonize its electricity mix. However, it faces massive investment needs on electricity networks and is confronted with the double necessity of preserving the competitiveness of its industry and overcoming the reluctance generated in its population by the increased costs associated with the decarbonization of energy uses.

Energy trilemma and global challenges

The three scenarios presented by TotalEnergies integrate the challenges of the energy trilemma: supply security, price and decarbonization. The report notes that the global energy system continues to evolve « on a tightrope », between the issues of resilience and sovereignty highlighted by the crisis in the Middle East, and a transition that continues.

Cautious interpretation of projections

According to Notre-planete, TotalEnergies' projections should be interpreted with caution, as they reflect the assumptions of an energy group and not a scientific consensus on the future. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reminds that limiting warming to 1.5 or 2 °C requires deep and rapid emission reductions. However, even the most ambitious scenario presented by TotalEnergies no longer allows achieving the 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement.

Implications for markets and investors

TotalEnergies' forecasts on oil and energy demand have major implications for markets and investors. The announcement of a peak in oil demand between 2035 and 2040 confirms a trend already anticipated by several analysts, but the downward revision compared to last year's forecasts testifies to an acceleration of the transition.

Financing the energy transition

The report also highlights the challenges related to financing the transition. Investment needs are massive, particularly to modernize electricity networks, develop charging infrastructure for electric vehicles and deploy carbon capture and storage technologies. States will have to balance the preservation of their industry's competitiveness, supply security and climate goals. In a context of increased geopolitical tensions and commercial rivalries, international cooperation appears more than ever necessary to accelerate the transition and limit global warming.