Airbus forecasts aerospace services growth

Airbus has released its Global Services Forecast 2026-2045 (GSF), predicting significant growth in the global aerospace services market. The report expects spending in the sector to reach $422 billion by 2045, compared to $209 billion this year, as the global fleet is projected to nearly double to 45,550 aircraft. Passenger numbers are expected to rise from five to ten billion in the same period.

Maintenance remains the largest segment

Maintenance activities will remain the largest segment of the global services market, accounting for nearly 85% of its value in 2045. Off-wing maintenance, including engines and removed equipment, is expected to see spending of $217 billion, with an average annual growth of 3.7%. On-wing maintenance, which includes line operations and major visits, is projected to reach $36 billion.

New maintenance support segment emerges

A new segment focused on maintenance operations support, including logistics and technical support, is expected to grow to $104 billion by 2045, with an average annual growth of 4.3%. This segment reflects the increasing complexity of aircraft maintenance and the need for efficient support systems to manage it.

Digital and connectivity growth leads the way

The digital and connectivity segment is expected to show the fastest growth, with an average annual growth of 5.3%, reaching $27 billion by 2045. Airbus is emphasizing predictive maintenance, digital twins, and real-time operational data through its Skywise platform. Operational disruptions cost airlines approximately $43 billion in 2025, a figure that could rise to $80 billion, but digitization may reduce these costs by up to 30%.

Aging fleet drives modernization needs

The aging of the global fleet will drive modification and modernization activities. Airbus notes that 12% of the current fleet exceeds 21 years, compared to 8% a decade ago. The modification and improvement market is expected to reach $21 billion by 2045, driven by cabin modernization and demand for premium classes.

Circular economy supports growth

The circular economy will also be a growth lever, with the removal and dismantling of about 18,400 aircraft over the next 20 years feeding a used spare parts market estimated at $60 billion. This reflects a shift toward sustainability and cost-effective resource use in the aerospace industry.

Labor demand rises sharply

Airbus estimates the sector will need to train approximately 730,000 new maintenance technicians, 660,000 pilots, and 1.05 million flight attendants by 2045, totaling 2.44 million professionals. This growth occurs amid a persistent shortage of qualified labor, with mechanics being particularly rare, requiring six years of training to become certified.