Air cargo traffic set to double by 2045

Global air cargo traffic is expected to double over the next twenty years, according to forecasts from Boeing. The company predicts an average annual growth rate of 3.5% until 2045, which would result in a doubling of activity compared to 2025, a year in which traffic had already reached a record high, with a growth of nearly 5%.

Cargo aircraft fleet to expand significantly

The global fleet of dedicated cargo aircraft is expected to increase from 2,395 aircraft in 2025 to 4,010 in 2045, a rise of 67%. Boeing estimates the global need for new and converted cargo aircraft over the next two decades at 2,930 aircraft.

Most new cargo aircraft will be conversions

Nearly two-thirds of these deliveries would be conversions of passenger aircraft into cargo aircraft, compared to one-third for aircraft built directly in cargo versions. Approximately 55% of these deliveries would support market growth, while the remaining 45% would replace older and less efficient aircraft.

Airbus shares similar growth expectations

This trend is not unique to Boeing. Airbus, in its own forecasts published a week earlier, estimates that conversions will constitute the majority of fleet additions, with 1,700 converted aircraft out of a total need of 2,670 cargo aircraft. The European aircraft manufacturer cites the A320, A321, A330 families, and its A350F heavy freighter program as key platforms for conversion.

Growth driven by e-commerce and tech industries

The growth of air cargo is based on several developments, including the increase in e-commerce volumes, the development of direct sales to consumers, and the needs of high-tech industries. Changes in the location of production and geopolitical disruptions are also leading companies to adapt their networks and routes.

Asia to lead air cargo expansion

Asia is expected to drive growth, with connections serving the region representing about 60% of the global air cargo market. Experts in express and guaranteed-time deliveries are also expected to gain ground, with Boeing forecasting that these integrated operators will ensure nearly 25% of global air cargo traffic in 2045.

Cargo aircraft will remain dominant

Boeing forecasts that dedicated cargo aircraft will continue to account for more than half of global traffic in the long term, with their share historically around 55%, measured in ton-kilometers. The doubling announced applies to traffic, not simply to the tons shipped or the number of aircraft in service.

Airbus predicts slightly slower growth

Airbus forecasts a more moderate growth in the cargo market, estimating an annual traffic growth of 3.2% compared to Boeing's 3.5%. It forecasts a global fleet of 3,460 cargo aircraft in 2045, an increase of 46% compared to its base of 2,360 aircraft in 2025.

Forecasts remain projections, not guarantees

These differences also recall the nature of the exercise: the figures published by manufacturers are twenty-year market scenarios, and not order books. Boeing itself notes that its forecasts are based on assumptions that could be refuted by the evolution of the economy, trade, or operating conditions.