French soft wheat stock drops significantly

FranceAgriMer predicts a 25% decline in French soft wheat organic stock for the 2026-2027 period, with end-of-campaign stock expected to be 64,102 t, down from 85,000 t the previous year. This decrease is attributed to persistent drought and repeated heatwaves that have affected production potential.

Harvests fall short of expectations

The estimated 2026-2027 soft wheat harvest is 270,000 t, a 10% drop from the previous campaign. Initial collection figures in August 2026 showed little change compared to the previous year, but forecasts were later revised downward as the harvest season progressed.

Imports and animal feed demand rise

To offset the lower domestic harvest, imports of organic soft wheat are expected to increase by 35% to 35,000 t. This increase is primarily to meet the rising demand for organic forage wheat from animal feed manufacturers, which has grown by 23% to 93,000 t.

Milling wheat supply remains strong

In contrast to the reduced soft wheat stock, supplies of organic milling wheat are abundant. The carryover stock of 85,002 t consists mainly of flour wheat, and the 2026 harvest has excellent technological properties, including high baking quality and protein content.

High quality but weak demand

Despite the high quality of the 2026 harvest, with an average protein content of 11.1% and a baking score of 262/300, the demand for organic milling wheat has remained stable. Consumption in the baking sector has declined due to rising production costs, and exports are expected to fall by 17%.

Market strategies to stabilize prices

Some industry operators suggest downgrading lower quality milling wheat to the forage market to reduce reliance on expensive imports and ease pressure on domestic prices. This could help rebalance the market, as the price gap between milling and forage wheat narrows, potentially encouraging such a shift.