Moroccan plan remains central to talks

The Moroccan plan, introduced in 2007, continues to serve as the main reference for negotiations on Western Sahara, even though neither Algeria nor the Polisario Front has accepted its framework. The United Nations Security Council resolution 2797, adopted in October 2025, has reaffirmed this plan as the basis for discussions, though its content is open to modification.

Focus shifts to true autonomy

The debate over Western Sahara is now centered on the concept of "true autonomy," as outlined in resolution 2797. This idea moves beyond the traditional standoff between Morocco's claim to sovereignty and the Polisario's push for independence, aiming for a more flexible political arrangement that includes significant local self-governance.

Trust and incidents hinder progress

The UN's personal envoy, Staffan de Mistura, has identified two main obstacles to a breakthrough: the continuation of incidents and violations of the 1991 ceasefire, and the deep lack of trust between the parties. These issues have stalled progress in negotiations and continue to complicate efforts toward a resolution.

Consultation with Sahrawi people required

A key condition for any autonomy arrangement is the consent of the Sahrawi people. The secretary-general's report emphasizes the need for a "significant consultation" of the local population, which could take various forms, including a vote on the final status or validation by elected representatives. This approach avoids a strict referendum between independence and integration.

Autonomy must include real powers

A true autonomy must include real decision-making powers for Sahrawi institutions, beyond administrative decentralization. The Moroccan plan includes provisions for a regional parliament and local governance, but it also requires protections against unilateral reclamation by Morocco. Defense, currency, and foreign policy would remain under Moroccan control, while other areas would be managed locally.

Resource sharing is critical

The management and sharing of resources, including phosphates, fishing, and renewable energy, are crucial for the viability of any autonomy. Local institutions would need to control a significant portion of revenue and influence major projects to ensure the autonomy's sustainability and benefit to the Sahrawi population.

Inclusion of Polisario is essential

Any lasting agreement must include the Polisario Front, despite Morocco's refusal to recognize its claim to represent the Sahrawi people. The movement must be involved in defining the new status and participating in elections. The issue of Sahrawi refugees in Tindouf camps is also central, with proposed visits to Moroccan cities as a confidence-building measure.

International guarantees and transition plans

Negotiations have proposed a temporary council to oversee the transition to the new status and manage disarmament and reintegration of combatants. Strong international guarantees would be necessary to prevent unilateral changes to any agreement. The UN may shift its role from overseeing a referendum to monitoring the autonomy and protecting political rights.

Regional cooperation and sovereignty concerns

A viable solution requires improved relations between Morocco and Algeria, with both sides showing some willingness to engage in dialogue. Morocco remains opposed to any arrangement that allows for secession, while Algeria insists on the principle of self-determination. A balanced formula could allow both to maintain their positions while opening the door to regional cooperation.

Security Council decision pending

The Security Council is expected to decide by October 31 on the renewal of the MINURSO mandate, which will indicate the level of support for the negotiations. The current disagreement over sovereignty and self-determination leaves room for further discussion, particularly on the transition council and resource-sharing mechanisms.