Violence linked to Islamist extremist groups in Africa's Sahel region is expected to reach record levels in the coming year, according to new data from the conflict monitoring organization Acled. The Sahel, a vast and strategically important region stretching across parts of West Africa, has become a hotbed for jihadist activity. In particular, the countries of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have seen a sharp increase in violence involving groups associated with al-Qaida and the Islamic State. From 63 incidents in 2016, the number of such events has surged to 2,845 in 2025, with 2,145 already recorded in 2026. If current trends continue, the number could surpass 3,000 for the year. Despite a global decline in terrorism-related deaths since 2008, the Sahel continues to experience some of the highest rates of fatalities from such violence. The 2026 Global Peace Index report noted that the region remains a major hotspot, with the United Nations documenting over 9,000 deaths from security-related incidents in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger in 2025. Recent attacks have included coordinated offensives by al-Qaida-linked groups and Tuareg rebels, targeting government forces, Russian military advisors, and strategic locations. Notable incidents include the death of Mali’s defense minister in a suicide bombing and the capture of the strategic city of Kidal. These events have significantly weakened the military position of Mali’s current leadership. The conflict in the region is not solely between Islamist groups and governments. Rivalries among extremist factions, as well as attacks by government forces and Russian mercenaries, have also contributed to the violence. In Burkina Faso, al-Qaida-linked group Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) claimed over 130 attacks in 2026, bringing the conflict closer to the capital. In Niger, JNIM has been less active compared to Islamic State in the Greater Sahara, according to a recent United Nations report. Experts note that JNIM has shifted its focus away from global targets, such as the United States, and is instead focused on local control and regional influence. “In the Sahel, Islamic State and al-Qaida now command big areas but these are very localised groups. Not a single attack in Europe or the US has been planned in the Sahel,” said Ulf Laessing, a senior analyst at the Konrad Adenauer foundation in Berlin. In addition to JNIM, al-Shabaab, an al-Qaida-linked group based in Somalia, remains a major threat in East Africa. The group has been responsible for over 10,000 deaths in the past 18 months, according to Acled. Meanwhile, militant groups loosely connected to the Islamic State are active in countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Chad, and Nigeria. These groups have been targeted by U.S. airstrikes in recent years. While al-Qaida has embraced its growing influence in Africa, experts note that the continent was not a primary focus for the group in the years following the 9/11 attacks. Today, however, Africa is seen as the main area of operations for the group. Despite its regional strength, al-Qaida's global influence has waned. The group's leadership is described as “marginalised” in recent reports, and its ability to conduct international operations remains unclear. Ayman al-Zawahiri, the former leader of al-Qaida, was killed in 2022, and no formal successor has been declared. The current de facto leader, Saif al-Adel, is believed to be in Iran and has not publicly addressed the group. Meanwhile, al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), based in Yemen, is considered the most active al-Qaida affiliate outside Africa. However, its activity has declined significantly in recent years, according to Acled. While AQAP continues to call for attacks in Europe and the United States, its operational capacity is far less than it was during the early 2000s.