A new working paper from economists at Munich's CESifo suggests there is currently no strong evidence of widespread job displacement or reduced hiring for recent college graduates, either in absolute numbers or compared to previous years. The study, titled "The Early Impacts of AI on Employment Among Recent College Graduates," was conducted by Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu. They chose to focus on recent graduates because changes in labor demand often show up first in hiring patterns. As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes capable of performing routine tasks in many entry-level office jobs, the researchers suggest that companies may choose to reduce hiring for simpler roles rather than laying off more experienced workers. The study notes that while AI may be beginning to affect certain types of jobs, its impact on recent graduates is not yet widespread. However, the researchers caution that this may change in the near future. They point to data from a recent U.S. Census survey showing a sharp increase in the number of firms using AI to replace a significant number of employee tasks. Additionally, there has been a noticeable rise in AI spending per employee and the use of advanced tools like ChatGPT Enterprise in the past year. The researchers suggest that graduates entering the job market in 2026 may face a higher risk of displacement from AI than those who graduated just a year or two earlier. This is due to the rapid adoption of AI technologies in the workplace, which could reshape the demand for certain types of labor. However, the study also highlights that the current effects of AI on employment are still limited and not yet reflected in broad hiring trends. As AI continues to evolve, its impact on the labor market will likely become more pronounced. The study underscores the importance of monitoring how AI adoption affects different segments of the workforce, particularly those in entry-level positions. For now, the findings indicate that while AI is beginning to influence hiring practices, it has not yet led to significant job loss among recent college graduates.