Flávio Bolsonaro leads in first-round vote

Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, has won the first round of Brazil's presidential election with 47% of the votes. He will face outgoing president Lula, who received 45%, in a second-round runoff on October 25.

Environmental concerns overlooked in campaign

According to a report, 92% of Brazilians consider climate and environmental issues important. However, Flávio Bolsonaro's environmental policy program does not even use the term climate change, notes Christiana Losekann, a professor at the Federal University of Espírito Santo.

Jair Bolsonaro's legal consequences

Former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced in September 2025 to 27 years in prison for his role in the coup attempt that followed his electoral defeat against Lula. His environmental record is marked by a significant decline in nature protection policies.

Flávio Bolsonaro's climate stance

Flávio Bolsonaro, despite presenting himself as a "moderate," promotes a deeply climate-skeptical ideology. He has supported anti-environmental and anti-indigenous laws, such as the "timeframe framework" law and the "devastation law" that weaken protections for indigenous lands and allow more industrial development.

Conservative Congress shapes policies

These laws passed due to a Congress dominated by conservative groups. Between January 2023 and July 2026, 70% of votes on environmental issues resulted in measures harmful to the environment, according to the Climate Observatory. This orientation was inherited from his father, who weakened environmental institutions.

Amazon faces increased land conflict

In the Amazon, land grabbing is often violent. A "land rush wild west" is emerging where the law of the strongest prevails. Hervé Théry, a geographer, explains that land is acquired through force or invasion, fueling conflicts between landowners and indigenous communities.

Rise in violence against environmentalists

In 2025, 26 environmental defenders were killed in Brazil, more than double the previous year. The country is now the second most deadly in the world for these activists, according to Global Witness. These killings are linked to weakened environmental enforcement under Jair Bolsonaro.

Flávio Bolsonaro linked to violent networks

Revelations by Piauí magazine suggest Flávio Bolsonaro sent 200,000 reais to a militia member convicted of murdering activist Marielle Franco. This connection raises concerns about his ties to criminal networks involved in land conflicts.

Lula's environmental contradictions

Outgoing president Lula is not without criticism for his support of oil exploitation, such as off the coast of Amapá. Hervé Théry explains that Lula's approach is pragmatic, prioritizing economic development while managing environmental concerns for political and international reasons.

Supreme Court's role in the future

The composition of the Supreme Court remains a major unknown in the election. If Flávio Bolsonaro wins, he could appoint four judges from his camp, potentially leading to a more illiberal and anti-environmental regime, signaling a failure for democracy.