Polls show Flávio Bolsonaro slightly ahead

Six days before the second round of the Brazilian presidential election, Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a narrow lead in most polls against outgoing president Lula. The first major debate between the two candidates, organized on Sunday, October 18 by the Band channel in São Paulo, offered a revealing confrontation highlighting a Brazil more divided than ever.

Candidates and their political backgrounds

Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, candidate of the Liberal Party and representative of a relaxed conservative right, surpassed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by two points with 47% of the votes. Lula, 80, is running for a fourth non-consecutive term and contesting his seventh presidential election. The outcome of the first round defied most predictions.

Debate format and physical confrontation

The format chosen by Band allowed the candidates to move freely on the set and manage part of their speaking time. This scenographic freedom quickly turned the debate into a physical confrontation, where the way of occupying space counted almost as much as the arguments exchanged. Flávio Bolsonaro regularly positioned himself behind Lula, multiplying mimics, sarcastic smiles and gestures of denial while his opponent addressed the viewers.

Accusations and personal attacks

The most spectacular moment of the evening occurred when Lula deliberately distanced himself from Flávio Bolsonaro, stating he wanted to remain at a distance from a "militia man." He was thus alluding to the supposed links between the Bolsonaro family and the para-police groups that exert their influence over certain popular neighborhoods in Rio de Janeiro. Jair Bolsonaro's son responded by mentioning the risk of having his wallet stolen, before showing the word "corrupt" written on the palm of his hand.

Corruption allegations and mutual accusations

Corruption and suspicions concerning both families constituted the true core of the face-to-face. Flávio Bolsonaro questioned the president about his son, Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as "Lulinha," mentioned in several alleged cases, as well as the frauds affecting the National Institute of Social Security. Lula replied that his son should not receive any protection if he had committed offenses.

Historical corruption and political legacy

The duel thus revealed a common vulnerability. Lula remains exposed to the invocation of his past corruption convictions, annulled for procedural and jurisdictional competence reasons, but whose political imprint has never completely disappeared. This is compounded by the memory of the huge scandals that marked the years of power of the Workers' Party, from the 2005 "Mensalão," a vast system of secret monthly payments made to allied parliamentarians to guarantee their support for Lula's government projects, to the seismic impact of the "Lava Jato" operation.

Public security and contrasting approaches

Although personal attacks often stifled the debate of ideas, the issue of public security did reveal a clearly identifiable political difference. Flávio Bolsonaro promised to declare "war on narcoterrorism" and to recognize the main criminal factions as terrorist or narcoterrorist organizations. Lula defended a more federal and institutional approach. He highlighted his project for a constitutional reform of public security to improve coordination between the central government, the states, and the various police forces.

Security challenges and contradictions

Flávio Bolsonaro's security discourse encounters a more contradictory reality than his martial formulas suggest. Brazil has indeed recorded 40,775 intentional violent deaths in 2025, nearly 112 per day, but this total has decreased by 8% in a year and reached its lowest level since 2012. However, fear is not based solely on statistical illusion. More than four Brazilians out of ten aged 16 and over declare they perceive the presence of criminal factions or militias in their neighborhood, while 6,602 people were killed by law enforcement, about one violent death out of six.

Economic policies and political rhetoric

Flávio Bolsonaro focused his attacks on debt, the level of public spending, and the cost of living. He accused the government of multiplying social measures just days before the election to ensure his political re-election. According to him, Lula has become the representative of an obese and impotent state, capable of spending increasingly more without significantly improving the daily lives of Brazilians.

Economic growth and public dissatisfaction

The Brazilian economy continues to grow, driven notably by the country's export power and the relatively high global prices of raw materials. However, macroeconomic indicators do not automatically translate into political satisfaction. For many households, the statistical improvement remains abstract compared to the price of food, the cost of housing, debt, and the feeling of decline.

Jair Bolsonaro's political role

Absent from the stage, Jair Bolsonaro remains the third man in this presidential race. Sentenced to twenty-seven years and three months in prison for his leading role in the institutional subversion company that followed his defeat in 2022 and culminated with the invasion of the "three powers" in Brasília on January 8, 2023, the former president is now serving his sentence at his home, according to a humanitarian regime justified by his health condition.

Bolsonaro family's political ambitions

Bolsonarism is no longer merely a political current: it is becoming a family enterprise for power acquisition. While Flávio aims for the presidency, Michelle and Carlos Bolsonaro have been elected to the Senate, while Jair Renan and Renato Bolsonaro will enter the Chamber of Deputies.

Debate outcome and future prospects

It would be risky to designate an uncontested winner at the end of this debate. Flávio Bolsonaro set the pace, but not necessarily the stature. He appeared combative, confident, and master of his strategy; his insolence and provocations also made him seem like an heir still insufficiently presidential. Lula claimed the experience of the state, the protection of the most vulnerable, and national independence.

Divided visions of Brazil

Above all, neither of the two men has truly attempted to mend the Brazilian fracture. Each addressed his own country. To Flávio Bolsonaro, the Brazil of order, sanction, evangelical churches, and revenge against the corrupt and business-oriented left; to Lula, that of social protection, the working class memory, the Northeast, and national sovereignty.

Next polls and final debate

The next Datafolha poll, a very followed barometer of Brazilian electoral life, is due to be published on Thursday, October 22. Conducted entirely after the broadcast, it will allow the first effects on the balance of power to be measured. A final face-to-face between the two finalists is announced for Friday, October 23, on TV Globo, just two days before an election that is already historic and decisive for the future of this continent-country.