Brazil’s presidential election heads to a second round with Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro in a tight race, as polls show a narrow lead for the latter.
Election date set for Brazil
On Sunday, October 25, 158.7 million Brazilians will vote in the second round of the presidential election to determine who will hold the presidency for the next four years. Lula da Silva is seeking a fourth term, while Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro (2019–2023), aims to follow in his father’s footsteps. First round results show tight race
In the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator from the Partido Liberal (PL), emerged in first place with 47.03% of the vote, ahead of the incumbent president, who received 45.16%. Several major polls published in recent days were conducted before the October 18 debate, and therefore do not yet reflect any potential impact of that event on voter intentions. Some polls show Bolsonaro with clear lead
Flávio Bolsonaro leads in some polls, but none of the candidates has a clear advantage. In the PoderData/Aya survey, Flávio Bolsonaro is credited with 52% of the vote, compared to 48% for Lula, a four-point lead well above the 1.8-point margin of error. A similar scenario appears in the Real Time Big Data study. Other polls show narrow margins
In other polls, although Flávio Bolsonaro is given a slight edge over Lula da Silva, the difference remains within the margin of error, resulting in a technical tie between the two candidates. The França institute gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 1.6-point lead over the incumbent president, but with a margin of error of 1.8 points, the outcome remains uncertain. Smallest lead in recent survey
The BTG/Nexus survey gives the smallest advantage to Flávio Bolsonaro, with 50.30% of valid votes compared to 49.70% for Lula da Silva, a 0.60-point difference, well below the 2-point margin of error. One poll shows Lula ahead
Only one poll currently gives Lula da Silva the lead in the second round. Vox Brasil Opiniao gives the incumbent president 51% of valid votes, compared to 49% for Flávio Bolsonaro. However, with a 2.15-point margin of error, the poll does not clearly distinguish between the two candidates. Campaigns intensify with legal claims
Both campaigns are intensifying their efforts. The October 18 debate highlighted the sharp exchanges between the candidates, with the use of new technologies being a central point of contention. On Tuesday, Lula da Silva’s campaign requested the annulment of Flávio Bolsonaro’s candidacy due to alleged interference by Meta, claiming the American platform restricted the circulation of content from the incumbent president on Instagram and WhatsApp. Legal challenges continue
A few hours later, Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign requested the annulment of Lula da Silva’s candidacy, citing alleged abusive propaganda on WhatsApp, even referring to it as an “abuse of power.” Both requests are under review by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Tensions and uncertainty ahead
These recent developments illustrate the tensions marking the end of the campaign, as both camps continue to launch aggressive offensives. Meanwhile, the polls indicate a tight race, with Flávio Bolsonaro slightly ahead in several surveys. However, the margins remain narrow in some studies, and the recent confrontations between the candidates could still influence the campaign. With only a few days until the vote, the outcome of the second round remains uncertain.
