Economic growth forecast for Zambia

Zambia's economy is expected to grow by 5.6% in 2026, driven by agriculture, mining, and exports, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This is slightly below the 5.8% growth predicted in January of the same year.

Copper remains a key export

Copper, which is Zambia's main export product, will continue to be a major contributor to the country's economic growth. However, public finances remain weak, with tax revenues falling short of expectations.

Tax revenue and spending challenges

Lower value-added tax (VAT) revenues and reduced fuel taxes have contributed to weaker tax collections. Additionally, the Food Reserves Agency has spent more than budgeted, worsening the primary budget balance compared to the previous year.

Inflation and reserves within targets

Inflation in Zambia dropped to 6.1% in September 2026, staying within the target range set by the Bank of Zambia. Gross international reserves have also reached 6.1 billion USD, indicating some financial stability.

Plans to improve public finances

To strengthen public finances, authorities plan to remove temporary fuel tax relief and cut non-essential investments. They aim for a primary budget surplus of 3% of GDP by 2029, through higher domestic revenues and fewer tax exemptions.

IMF agreement for economic support

Zambia has reached a preliminary agreement with the IMF for a 36-month program under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), worth 1.47 billion USD. This program will help cover budget needs and support sustainable growth driven by the private sector.

Previous IMF program and ongoing reforms

Zambia completed its previous IMF program in January 2026, which had been approved in August 2022 and amounted to about 1.7 billion USD. Despite this support, new budgetary challenges in 2026 show the need for continued economic reforms.