Growth forecast revised downward

Zimbabwe has lowered its expected economic growth for 2027 from 5% to 3.5%, according to Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube. The revision comes amid concerns about climate risks and global economic instability, despite a projected 5% growth in 2026 and a strong 8.3% growth in 2025.

Economic size and macroeconomic goals

Nominal GDP is expected to reach $66.4 billion in 2026 and $69.1 billion in 2027. The government aims to maintain macroeconomic stability while focusing on exports, agriculture, and industrial development to support long-term economic goals under Vision 2030.

Inflation and exchange rate improvements

Annual inflation in Zimbabwe’s national currency, the ZiG, fell to 3.7% in September 2026, with an average of 4% for the first nine months of the year. The gap between the official and unofficial exchange rates has narrowed to less than 20%, and the Central Bank reduced its key policy rate from 35% to 27.5% between June and September 2026.

Agriculture growth and climate risks

Agriculture grew by 27.9% in 2025 and is expected to grow by 5% in 2026. However, the potential arrival of a strong El Niño weather pattern threatens the 2027 agricultural season. To address this, the government is implementing a six-point drought mitigation plan, including building a strategic grain reserve of 600,000 metric tonnes by October 2027.

Manufacturing and mining progress

Manufacturing capacity utilization rose to 61.2% in 2025 and is expected to exceed 63.5% in 2026. Manufacturing output is now 41.4% higher than in 2022, supported by $3.56 billion in investments. Gold production has more than doubled since 2017, reaching over 55,500 kg, with efforts to increase local value addition and job creation in the sector.

Tourism and trade expansion

Tourism revenue reached $537 million in the first half of 2026, with over 792,000 visitors recorded. Exports have grown significantly, from $5.3 billion in 2020 to $11 billion in 2025, and reached $9 billion in the first eight months of 2026. The government aims to reach $14.9 billion in exports for the full year.

Infrastructure and public finances

Zimbabwe continues to invest in infrastructure, including roads, dams, housing, and electrification. Progress includes 18.3 km of a dual highway near Harare and the completion of 143 electrification projects in 2026. These efforts aim to improve connectivity, water security, and service delivery.

Public finances and budget plans

State revenues in 2026 are estimated at 287.64 billion ZiG, compared to 290.88 billion in expenditures. A 36 billion ZiG surplus was used to pay off debts. For 2027, the government plans to keep the budget deficit below 3% of GDP, focusing on infrastructure, agriculture, job creation, digital transformation, and social programs.