2026-2027 cyclone season begins early

The 2026-2027 cyclone season in the southwest Indian Ocean has started earlier than usual, with the first tropical storm, named Agueda, forming on Tuesday, October 20, near the Seychelles. The storm developed quickly, with increased thunderstorm activity, and is now classified as a tropical storm.

Agueda’s expected path

Agueda is forecast to move slowly toward the southwest over the next few days. According to Météo-France, no impact from Agueda is expected on Mayotte and La Réunion within the five days following the Tuesday morning bulletin. However, it could bring disturbed weather to some parts of the Seychelles.

Early formation of the first storm

This first storm formed more than three weeks before the typical median date for the first named system of the season, as reported by Météo-France. While Agueda may not directly affect Mayotte or La Réunion, it highlights the early start to the cyclone season.

El Niño’s influence on the region

The upcoming cyclone season will occur in the context of an expected El Niño event, a climatic phenomenon involving the warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific. Météo-France notes that El Niño’s effects in the southwest Indian Ocean also depend on other factors, such as the Indian Ocean dipole.

El Niño’s impact on weather patterns

El Niño typically brings higher-than-average temperatures and increased seasonal rainfall to Mayotte and La Réunion. However, these broader trends do not provide precise predictions for local rainfall amounts or their distribution during the season. The path and strength of each storm must still be tracked through ongoing weather updates.